Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-29 07:47Core Viewpoint - The competition for TSMC's CoWoS capacity is intensifying as major tech companies, particularly NVIDIA, are vying for advanced packaging technology to support their AI strategies. [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - Global demand for CoWoS is projected to reach 1 million wafers by 2026, indicating a robust growth of 40% to 50% in the cloud AI semiconductor market. [1] - NVIDIA is expected to consume 595,000 wafers, capturing approximately 60% of the total global demand. [2][4] - The capital expenditure of cloud service providers (CSPs) is rising, with Google increasing its 2025 budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, further accelerating investments in 2026. [1][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA's total demand for CoWoS wafers is forecasted at 595,000, with 515,000 wafers sourced from TSMC, primarily for its next-generation Rubin architecture chips. [2][4] - AMD is projected to secure 105,000 wafers, representing about 11% of the market share, with 80,000 wafers produced by TSMC for its MI355 and MI400 series AI accelerators. [2][4] - Broadcom is anticipated to demand 150,000 wafers, accounting for 15% of the market, mainly for custom chips for major clients like Google and Meta. [2][4] Group 3: Financial Implications for TSMC - TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to increase significantly from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 93,000 wafers by the end of 2026, driven by strong customer demand. [7] - AI-related revenue is projected to constitute 25% of TSMC's total revenue by 2025, positioning the company as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI wave. [7]