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Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed insufficient upward momentum and retreated, with the market adopting a short-light positioning strategy [1] - The upcoming week will face multiple significant risk events, including international trade dynamics, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data from the US [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting on July 30, despite strong expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - The two-year Treasury yield slightly increased to 3.926%, indicating subtle adjustments in market interest rate expectations [1] - Gold prices are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, and a clear signal of rate cuts from the Fed could weaken the dollar, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] - Current market expectations favor the Fed maintaining stable rates, coupled with a strong dollar, which poses downward pressure on gold prices [1] Geopolitical Factors - Trump set a 10 to 12-day ultimatum for Russia to make progress in the Ukraine conflict, threatening sanctions and tariffs, which provoked a strong response from Russia [2] - The deteriorating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, has increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The UN reported that over half of Gaza's population faces severe food insecurity, raising international concern [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape diminishes hopes for peace, potentially increasing gold's safe-haven demand [2] Market Performance - The US bond market and stock market dynamics provide important context for gold price movements [2] - On July 28, US Treasury prices fell, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively, reflecting optimistic market sentiment regarding the global economic outlook [2] - The strong performance of the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicates investor preference for risk assets, which further compresses gold's attractiveness [3] - The upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases, including PCE inflation and employment reports, may introduce new market volatility [3] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates [3] - The technical level of $3,300 for gold is at risk, and if breached, it may test the support level of $3,250 [3] - Two key variables to watch are the Fed's policy statement and potential setbacks in US-China trade negotiations [3] - The current spot prices are approximately $3,315 per ounce for gold and $38.11 per ounce for silver [3]