Ge Long Hui·2025-07-29 08:21Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the rapid evolution of large models in AI, emphasizing their development towards being stronger, more efficient, and more reliable, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [1][2] - The penetration of AI applications is accelerating, with a notable increase in the adoption of large models in both consumer and business sectors, surpassing the pace of the internet revolution [2][3] AI Model Development - Large models are transitioning from specialized to general intelligence, with significant improvements in training data and learning methods, leading to a dramatic increase in model size and capabilities [1][2] - The emergence of "emergent abilities" in large models indicates a shift from quantitative accumulation to qualitative breakthroughs, enabling autonomous decision-making and innovative applications in complex real-world scenarios [1][2] Market Dynamics - By 2024, China and the US are expected to account for over 80% of the world's self-developed large models, with China's models nearing 100 in number [2] - The gap in capabilities between top AI models in China and the US has narrowed significantly, from 20% to just 0.3% [2] Commercialization and Application - OpenAI has achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $10 billion, with a monthly compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, while Claude's ARR has surged from $1 billion to $3 billion in six months, reflecting the rapid commercialization of AI models [2] - The penetration rate of AI applications among US adults is comparable to the early days of the PC internet, indicating a swift adoption trajectory [2] AI Agent Development - AI Agents are emerging as a crucial direction for AI development in 2025, with various companies launching their unique strategies to leverage this technology [2][3] - The integration of AI Agents with deep reasoning capabilities is expected to enhance task execution accuracy and expand their application across diverse scenarios [2][3] Multi-Modal Models - The commercialization of multi-modal models is progressing rapidly, with over 30 updates or releases expected in the first half of 2025, predominantly from domestic models [2][3] - Multi-modal models are being applied in various sectors, including social entertainment and professional fields, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs [2][3] Computing Power and Infrastructure - The shift in AI computing power consumption from training to inference is leading to increased demand for computing resources, driven by the integration of AI into existing business operations [2][3] - The report identifies key areas of growth in computing infrastructure, including advancements in cooling technology, power supply systems, and PCB materials, which are essential for supporting the increasing demands of AI applications [3][4][5] Edge AI and AI PCs - The development of AI PCs is gaining momentum, with major manufacturers like Lenovo launching new models equipped with advanced AI capabilities, enhancing productivity and user experience [6][7] - Edge AI applications are expected to proliferate, with a significant increase in the number of applications anticipated in 2024, driven by the growing developer community and the demand for personalized and efficient solutions [6][7]