Buy or Sell META Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms is expected to report earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $5.90 per share and revenues of $44.8 billion, indicating growth from the previous year [4]. Historical Stock Behavior - Over the last five years, Meta's stock has shown a volatile reaction to earnings surprises, with a 50% chance of a positive one-day return, yielding a median increase of 7.7% and a peak rise of 23.3%. Conversely, there is also a 50% chance of a negative return, with a median decrease of -4.7% and a peak fall of -26.4% [3][11]. - There have been 20 earnings data points in the past five years, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating a balanced historical performance [6]. Financial Performance - Meta Platforms has a current market capitalization of $1.8 trillion and generated $170 billion in revenue over the past year, with operating profits of $73 billion and a net income of $67 billion [5]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may adopt two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities or post-earnings positioning to assess immediate stock reactions before making investment decisions [7]. - A less risky approach involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [8].