随着AI基础设施建设的军备竞赛进入"深水区"，一个令投资者不安的转折点已然浮现：为了支撑AI算力需求，亚马逊、谷歌和Meta正面临自由现 金流被耗尽甚至透支的风险。 根据摩根大通2026年2月5日发布的研究报告，美国四大云巨头——亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软，2026年总资本支出预计将达到6450亿美元，同比 激增56%，新增支出将达到惊人的2300亿美元。 对于投资者而言，2026年，或将是紧盯科技巨头资产负债表的一年。 谷歌的97%增速与亚马逊的"现金赤字" 在这场基建狂潮中，谷歌的投入非常激进。 2026年，谷歌的资本支出指引已上调至1750亿至1850亿美元，同比增速高达97%，其资金正疯狂涌向服务器和技术基础设施。 如果说谷歌还只是在"疯狂花钱"，那么亚马逊则堪称"透支未来"。 2026年，亚马逊的资本支出指引约为2000亿美元（同比增长52%）。但问题的核心在于，亚马逊赚回来的现金已经盖不住支出了——据标普全球 市场分析师预测，亚马逊2026年的运营现金流（OCF）约为1780亿美元。 这意味着，亚马逊的资本支出将超过其运营现金流，导致实质性的现金净流出（Burn Cash）。此外，据《The I ...

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech companies are planning to invest approximately $700 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, primarily focused on AI infrastructure, which includes data centers and related equipment [1][21]. Investment Plans - The five major companies are expected to contribute to 2.1% of current-dollar GDP through these investments [2]. - Other companies are also increasing capital expenditures, indicating a broader economic stimulus as long as this trend continues [3]. Share Buybacks and Funding Sources - Concerns exist that the increased spending may come at the expense of share buybacks, which have already begun to decline [2][7]. - The funding for the $700 billion investment will come from various sources, including reduced share buybacks, new share issuances, and debt issuances [5][9][19]. - Specific companies have already shifted from share buybacks to issuing new shares, such as Oracle, which issued $2.1 billion in new shares in 2025 [5][13]. Financial Performance and Debt - In Q4, share buybacks for the five companies dropped to $12.6 billion, the lowest since Q1 2018, compared to a peak of $149 billion in 2021 [7]. - Companies like Amazon and Meta have significantly reduced their share buybacks to allocate funds for AI investments [6][8]. - Oracle's recent bond offerings have seen high demand, indicating strong investor interest in corporate debt [16][19]. Operating Cash Flow - The operating cash flows for these companies are substantial, with Amazon generating $126 billion and Alphabet $127 billion in 2025, which can help fund the planned investments [20][23]. - Utilizing operating cash flow for investments is seen as a positive contribution to economic growth [23]. Economic Impact - The shift from share buybacks to investments in AI infrastructure is expected to stimulate economic growth, although it may not be well-received by shareholders [21][22]. - The overall investment strategy is viewed as a significant stimulus for the economy, provided that financial markets remain stable [23].

通信行业周报 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 北美云厂商业绩超预期，关注 CPO 及产业链公司投资机会 通信设备及服务 [Table_Industry] | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 王彦龙(分析师) | 010-83939775 | wangyanlong@gtht.com | S0880519100003 | 本报告导读： 北美云厂商接连发布最新财报，海外光通信公司 CPO 及 OCS 业务进展迅速，谷歌、 亚马逊 26 年资本开支指引进一步扩大，继续看好 AI 算力产业链方向。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 通信设备及服务《光纤光缆供不应求，看好涨价 趋势》2026.02.05 通信设备及服务《光纤行业涨价趋势明确，关注 cpo 和光互联投资机会》2026.02.03 通信设备及服务《基金持仓占比 ...

AI的故事，正在从"软件吞噬世界"，演变为"硬件被世界卡住"。 在极度撕裂的美国政治环境中，能让极左翼参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）和极右翼州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）站在同一阵线的 议题几乎不存在——除了"遏制数据中心"。 这不仅是华盛顿的政治奇观，更是华尔街面临的冷酷"物理修正"。当硅谷巨头们挥舞着比"阿波罗登月计划"还要昂贵的支票簿，试图通过堆砌 算力延续AI繁荣时，他们撞上了由政治和物理电网极限共同筑就的高墙。 纽约州立法者也已经提出法案，计划对新建数据中心的建设和运营许可实施至少三年的暂停。纽约至少是第六个考虑暂停新数据中心建设的 州。 总之，从佛罗里达州的社区抗议，到德克萨斯州电网的监管急刹车，一个被市场忽视的风险正在急剧升温：如果物理电网接不上、政治环境不 答应，那原本计入估值模型的数千亿美元资本开支，可能根本"花不出去"。 当桑德斯与德桑蒂斯"合谋" 桑德斯和德桑蒂斯在绝大多数议题上势同水火，但在数据中心激增的问题上，他们达成了罕见的共识：必须踩下刹车。 这种跨党派"联合"的敌意，源于美国民众对"AI副作用"的切肤之痛。全美各地，数据中心24小时不间断的低 ...

微信屏蔽元宝、千问红包链接 2月4日上午，记者在微信群中点入好友发出的元宝红包，显示"网页包含诱导分享、关注等诱导行为"， 提醒用户可以通过浏览器访问。随后，元宝红包在微信的分享改为口令的形式。微信安全中心公众号发 文称，微信对以春节为主题集中爆发的过度营销、诱导分享等违规行为进行打击。2月6日，千问在春节 活动的第一天，微信链接也被屏蔽了，部分用户在千问APP点击分享活动至微信好友时，已自动改为复 制口令形式。 【点评】:这场争夺AI入口的春节"撒币"大战，正变得前所未有地复杂与激烈。各厂商抢夺AI入口，但 可能都没有预料到，最激烈的竞争出现在国内最大的社交平台微信上。目前看来，或许微信社交裂变的 方式无法成为任何一家AI应用厂商扩大用户池的杀手锏。或许各大厂商接下来要靠产品实力说话了。 SpaceX收购xAI，马斯克打造AI太空帝国 当地时间2月2日，马斯克旗下的太空探索技术公司SpaceX宣布收购人工智能初创公司xAI。在公告中， 马斯克强调，将xAI并入SpaceX，旨在打造一个"垂直整合的创新引擎"，覆盖从地面到太空的完整技术 链条。该公告发布于xAI官网，并由马斯克本人署名。据外媒援引知情人士消息 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI development on e-commerce platforms, particularly focusing on the competitive dynamics between companies like Amazon, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, emphasizing the importance of consumer trust and value delivery in the retail sector [6][29]. Group 1: AI and E-commerce Dynamics - The daily token consumption in China is projected to increase from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to 40 trillion by September 2025, representing a growth of over 400 times [7]. - Major US tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, with Google estimating its 2026 CapEx to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending [8]. - Amazon's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is $200 billion, primarily focused on AWS AI infrastructure, while Microsoft anticipates around $150 billion in spending [9]. Group 2: Competitive Analysis of E-commerce Platforms - Amazon's 2025 GMV is estimated at approximately $700 billion, with AI assistant Rufus contributing $12 billion in annual transaction volume, accounting for 1.67% of total GMV [11][12]. - The article critiques the effectiveness of AI assistants in enhancing user experience, suggesting that they often serve as high-level customer service rather than providing significant incremental value [17]. - Pinduoduo's business model emphasizes "lowest price" as a prerequisite for advertising, contrasting with Amazon and Alibaba, which rely on advertising revenue from brand merchants [20][21]. Group 3: Consumer Trust and Value Proposition - The article argues that platforms like Costco succeed because they prioritize consumer trust and value, contrasting with Amazon and Alibaba, which may not always align with consumer needs [22]. - The effectiveness of AI shopping assistants is questioned, particularly in their ability to deliver on consumer expectations for price and quality, with the assertion that they cannot change the underlying business models of platforms like Alibaba [22][23]. - The article concludes that the future of AI in e-commerce will likely favor companies that can maintain consumer trust and deliver genuine value, with Apple and WeChat identified as potential leaders in this space due to their business models [27][28].

千亿私募景林近日披露最新美股持仓明细。数据显示，去年四季度，景林大幅减持英伟达，并加仓谷歌、拼多多、英特尔等公司。 截至去年四季度末，景林的美股持仓总市值为40.4亿美元，较三季度末下降3.37%。前十大重仓股分别为：谷歌、Meta、拼多多、网易、满帮、富途、英伟达、阿里 巴巴、英特尔和亚朵。 减持方面，景林减持力度最大的个股是英伟达，去年四季度合计卖出154.09万股，减持幅度高达64.78%，英伟达在景林投资组合中的占比降至3.86%。景林卖出 Meta公司22.91万股，持股数下降18.68%，持仓市值占比下降4.01%。同时，景林也对涅比乌斯集团、标普生物科技ETF-SPDR、贝壳等做出减持。 去年底，景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程在《2025年终给投资者的一封信》中指出，在AI、新能源、智能驾驶、人形机器人等新经济发展的前沿领域，中美 都在积极投资，相关公司在这个大浪潮中快速成长。在警惕泡沫或者过度投资的同时，我们也清晰地看到AI对各行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始。 高云程认为，对作为重要AI应用入口或者平台的公司都应该重视。能称为世界级入口或者平台型的公司大约也只有几家，例如谷歌、Meta、苹果 ...

Shares of Amazon, which had announced a $200 billion capital expenditure outlay, slid 7% on Friday, while Alphabet lost 3% after the company said on Wednesday that capital spending could double this year. Meta Platforms was down ‌1.3%. Other heavyweight technology ‌companies, however, were trading higher: Nvidia rose 7%, Microsoft gained 1% and Tesla was up 4%. The benchmark S&P 500 added 1.6% while the Nasdaq rose 2% although both indexes are set to ‌finish the week lower. "The market's viewpoint is that ...

黄仁勋发表这番言论之前，英伟达的主要客户 Meta、亚马逊、谷歌和微软在过去两周内相继公布了最 新财报。它们告诉投资者，计划大幅增加在人工智能基础设施方面的投入。 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】2月7日消息，英伟达 CEO黄仁勋在节目中表示，科技行业在人工智能基础设 施方面不断增长的资本支出是合理、适当且可持续的。原因在于所有这些公司的现金流都将开始增长。 华尔街对支出激增的反应不一，Meta和Alphabet的股价上涨，但亚马逊和微软的股价却受到冲击。 黄仁勋说："只要人们继续为人工智能付费，人工智能公司能够从中获利，它们就会不断翻倍、翻倍、 翻倍、翻倍。"（思瀚） ...