Group 1: Waste Management (WM) - WM is North America's leading environmental solutions provider, offering waste collection, disposal, and recycling services through the largest disposal network and collection fleet [2] - The company has the highest route density among its peers, maximizing waste collection at lower operating costs [2] - High regulatory permits create significant barriers to entry for competitors, solidifying WM's regulatory moat [3] - WM is expanding into Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) facilities, generating and selling landfill gas as renewable energy [3] - The Healthcare Solutions segment addresses rising waste collection demands from healthcare facilities, driven by an aging population [4] - Revenue for 3Q2025 increased to US$6.4 billion, up 15% year on year [4] - Operating EBITDA surged 15% to US$1.97 billion, achieving a record quarterly margin of 30.6% [5] - GAAP operating income decreased to US$989 million, down 12% year on year, primarily due to US$202 million in impairment charges [5] - Free Cash Flow increased by 33% due to reduced capital expenditure [6] - The temporary decline in recycled commodity prices reduced sales of recyclable materials by nearly 35%, but this segment accounts for only about 7% of total revenue, making the risk minimal [6] - WM's unmatched route density and regulatory moat allow it to increase prices without losing customers [7] Group 2: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms operates a suite of market-leading social media platforms, contributing most of its revenue through advertising [8] - The company has a base of 3.5 billion Daily Active People (DAP), supported by its leadership in advertising AI [9] - Meta's revenue surged in 3Q2025 to US$51.2 billion, with operating income rising to US$20.54 billion, up 26% and 18% year on year respectively [10] - Despite losses from Reality Labs, Meta maintained a resilient operating margin of 40% [10] - Reported net income was US$2.7 billion, down 83% year on year due to a one-time, non-cash tax charge of US$15.9 billion [11] - Meta's aggressive capex spending for AI expansion is expected to continue, introducing short-term margin pressure risks [11] - Legal and regulatory headwinds from the EU and US could pose further financial risks [12] - Despite these challenges, Meta's core ad business remains reliably profitable with a strong balance sheet [12] Group 3: Copart - Copart is a global leader in online vehicle auctions, operating with a proprietary auction platform and extensive logistics [13] - The company has 270 locations in 11 countries, with 175,000 vehicles up for auction daily [13] - Revenue for fiscal year 2025 grew 9.7% to US$4.65 billion, with operating income at US$1.70 billion, reflecting a 36.5% margin [14] - Operating cash flows surged 22.2% to US$1.80 billion, supported by a high cash balance of US$2.8 billion and no outstanding debt [14][15] - Copart's marketable securities stand at US$2.0 billion, generating additional interest income [15] - The increasing complexity of vehicles is expected to drive more cars to be auctioned, creating a secular tailwind for Copart's business [15] - While most revenue comes from North America, Copart is expanding internationally, facing risks from inconsistent vehicle salvage regulations [16] - Higher repair costs from complex vehicles may become a headwind if they significantly reduce accident rates [17] Group 4: Investment Implications - WM, Meta, and Copart dominate their respective markets, translating to consistent revenue growth [18] - Their profits and cash flows have shown consistent growth, barring one-time costs and non-cash losses [18] - Meta and Copart possess strong balance sheets, enabling them to pursue expansion plans [18] - WM enjoys pricing power through long-term contracts and regulatory moats [18] - These companies offer a unique blend of exposure to tech, auto auctions, and essential services, appealing to long-term investors [19][20]

1.当前美国算力投资是在通用人工智能越来越近的趋势下，所做的超前基础设施布局。总体上，当前美国算力基建已有泡沫迹象，但尚未到失 控的边缘，虽不能完全排除算力泡沫破裂可能性，但无论从当前大模型技术的快速迭代，大模型企业高速增长的营收，以及各行业上云落地的 需求，都让这一巨额投资具备一定的合理性。 2.美国当前规划建设的大型数据中心项目总装机容量已突破 45 吉瓦（GW），这场建设热潮预计将吸引超 2.5 万亿美元投资。大西洋月刊文章 设想了一种"崩盘机制"，即当这些巨额投资未能按预期变现、资本市场情绪转向、防御性抛售开始，就可能触发系统性的回落，科技股回落→ 估值压缩→投资放缓→AI 基础设施、芯片、数据中心等领域连锁受累。 3.大模型企业的增长斜率足够高，对芯片供应的需求持续提升。从收入来看，以OpenAI和Anthropic为代表的美国企业在个人用户和企业用户 两端均已实现可观收入。如预计今年底OpenAI的年化收入将超过200亿美元，比之前预测的130亿美元大幅增长，相比去年的40亿美元更是增 长5倍，并计划到2030年增长至数千亿美元。 4.今年三季度，亚马逊、微软和谷歌的云计算收入受AI拉动，分别达3 ...

Core Insights - Michael Burry has shifted focus from investing to writing, launching a paywalled Substack called "Cassandra Unchained" to share his analytical insights on stocks, markets, and historical patterns [1][2] - Burry's initial posts address the AI boom, which he critiques as a "glorious folly" and plans to explore in depth over several entries [2][3] Industry Analysis - Burry compares the current AI boom to the dot-com bubble, arguing that despite the perception that today's companies are profitable, the underlying issues of overbuilt supply and insufficient demand remain similar [3] - He identifies the leading companies in the current AI landscape as the "five public horsemen" — Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle — alongside emerging startups like OpenAI [3] - Burry draws a parallel between Cisco during the dot-com crash and Nvidia in the current market, suggesting Nvidia is central to the AI boom despite its potential risks [4] Company Developments - Burry has closed Scion Asset Management's SEC registration, indicating a shift away from managing outside capital [5] - His recent return to social media includes commentary suggesting that the AI boom may be a bubble, advising caution in investment strategies [5]

3.大模型企业的增长斜率足够高，对芯片供应的需求持续提升。从收入来看，以OpenAI和Anthropic为 代表的美国企业在个人用户和企业用户两端均已实现可观收入。如预计今年底OpenAI的年化收入将超 过200亿美元，比之前预测的130亿美元大幅增长，相比去年的40亿美元更是增长5倍，并计划到2030年 增长至数千亿美元。 4.今年三季度，亚马逊、微软和谷歌的云计算收入受AI拉动，分别达330亿美元、309亿美元152亿美 元，同比增长分别达20%、28%和34%。大量的行业使用，也推高了Token使用量，仅Google 一家，10 月公布的月均Token使用量就达到1300万亿。 5.历史上，并非所有的长期投资都是泡沫。关于是否是大的泡沫，一方面看其到底是生产性的，还是非 生产性的，如荷兰郁金香泡沫就是典型的非生产性泡沫，更容易破裂。另一方面，看钱的来源，是否 是产业自有投资，还是大量举债，且是否被包装成各种金融衍生品，通过加杠杆酝酿更大的风险。对 比2000年互联网泡沫时大型企业的估值，当前整体上虽然有一定程度的上升，但仍然处于一个相对合 理的区间，有较强的业绩支撑保障。 6.美国当前的AI算力投资浪潮 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,220, down 2.38% for the day and 5.09% for the week, but up 25.72% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.21% to 5,395, with a year-to-date increase of 20.76%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.45% to 8,920, with a year-to-date rise of 22.36%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.45% to 3,835, with a year-to-date increase of 14.41%[3] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector saw significant declines, with Ganfeng Lithium down over 12% and Tianqi Lithium down over 11%[9] - Semiconductor stocks also performed poorly, with Innolux down over 8% and SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor both down over 6%[9] - Xiaomi-related stocks rose against the trend, driven by the launch of Xiaomi's enhanced smart driving system[9] U.S. Market Insights - On November 21, U.S. markets saw all major indices rise, with the Dow Jones gaining approximately 1.1%[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from under 40% to over 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams[9] - Notable movements in large tech stocks included Google up 3.53% and Nvidia down 0.96%[9] Japanese Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.4%, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% over the past week[13] - Japanese semiconductor stocks faced significant drops, with Tokyo Electron down 7.14% and Advantest down 12.10%[13] - The Japanese government announced a $135 billion economic stimulus plan, adding pressure to the yen and government bonds[13]

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：李时樟 执业证书：S1030522060001 电话：18065826333 邮箱：lisz@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗晴 执业证书：S1030524110001 电话：13603091122 邮箱：luoqing@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 [Table_Industry] TMT [Table_Title] 国内外大模型厂商加速抢占 C 端入口 TMT 行业周报（11 月第 3 周） [Table_S 行业观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 】 [Table_ReportType] [Table_BaseData] 1) 周度市场回顾。TMT 板块内一级行业上周（11.17-11.21）涨 跌幅为：传媒（-1.25%）、通信（-2.51%）、计算机（-2.74%）、 电子（-5.89%）。TMT 板块内涨幅靠前的三级子行业为营销代 理（9.60%），跌幅靠前的三级子行业分别为其他电子Ⅲ（- 11.95%）、半导体设备（-7.19 ...

Core Insights - Meta plans to invest $60 billion in AI despite reporting a net profit of $37 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the financial challenges faced by tech giants in the AI arms race [1][2] Financing Challenges - The need for massive funding for AI infrastructure, including expensive AI chips and data centers, poses a dilemma for tech giants on how to secure funds without negatively impacting their financial statements [2][3] - Morgan Stanley estimates that "invisible debt" could reach $800 billion by 2028, representing significant liabilities that do not appear on the balance sheets of these companies [2] SPV Financing Method - The Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) financing method allows tech giants to isolate debt and optimize their financial reports by transferring the debt to a separate entity [3][4] - This method involves creating an SPV to borrow money using the parent company's credit, allowing the SPV to purchase assets and lease them back to the parent company, thus keeping the debt off the parent company's balance sheet [4] Examples of SPV Utilization - Meta successfully utilized this SPV method to increase its debt by $30 billion on its balance sheet while leveraging it to acquire $60 billion in computing assets [4] - Google has adopted a similar strategy by providing credit guarantees to weaker companies, allowing them to secure loans for data center assets, which are then leased back to Google [5] Circular Financing - The concept of circular financing allows companies to create a closed loop of capital flow among related parties, enhancing financial efficiency [7] - For instance, xAI established an SPV to raise $20 billion for purchasing NVIDIA chips, with minimal direct debt risk, showcasing the flexibility of this financing model [7] Industry Dynamics - Major tech companies are forming strategic alliances to create a tightly-knit capital community, which can amplify their financial capabilities and market influence [9][10] - Recent collaborations among giants like OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle have resulted in over $1 trillion in infrastructure and chip agreements, indicating a trend towards deeper integration in the AI sector [9] Scaling Law and Market Sentiment - The pursuit of Scaling Law drives exponential growth in computing demand, benefiting companies like NVIDIA, which has seen significant revenue increases [15] - However, industry leaders express caution regarding potential irrational exuberance in AI investments, with warnings about the risks of a bubble [15][16] Capital Market Movements - Notable investors are shifting their strategies, with significant sell-offs in NVIDIA stock while simultaneously investing in AI applications and models, indicating a transition in focus from hardware to software [16][17] - This shift suggests that while financing challenges may be temporarily addressed, the competition in the AI landscape is just beginning, with a more intense focus on applications and models ahead [17]

为给人工智能（AI）的巨大投入提供资金，科技公司正以前所未有的规模涌入债券市场。 据《华尔街日报》11月23日报道，自今年9月初以来，包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文在内的所谓"AI超大规模企业"（AI hyperscalers）已发 行近900亿美元的投资级债券。 根据Dealogic的数据，这一规模超过了这些公司此前40个月的发行总额。与此同时，评级较低的AI数据中心开发商也发行了超过70亿美元的投机 级债券。 目前，其评级仅比投机级高出两档，其债券收益率已高于几乎所有投资级科技同行。研究公司CreditSights的高级分析师Jordan Chalfin指出，甲骨 文未来三年可能还需发行约650亿美元的债券，维持投资级评级对其至关重要，因为投机级市场的融资规模远不足以支持其需求。 投机级债券的警示信号，风险正在外溢至股市 在风险更高的投机级市场，警示信号更为明确。作为少数拥有次投资级债券的主要AI云服务提供商，CoreWeave的处境颇具代表性。 据报道，该公司7月份发行的2031年到期债券，近期交易价格已跌至面值的92美分，对应的收益率高达约11%，与评级最低的CCC级债券平均水平 相当 ...

【数智产业周报整合近一周最重要的数字化技术和AI领域的前沿趋势、重磅政策及行研报告。】观点瑞银：继续交易AI叙事合理，维持超配中国 瑞银全球新兴市场股票首席策略师Sunil Tirumalai近日发布年度策略称，全球经济增长将从2026年初开始回升，发达市场财政扩张的全部益处可能会显现， 美联储资产负债表扩张和稳定币的积累使长端收益率处于可控范围。由于开展巨额投资的企业资产负债表空间充足，科技/AI投资可能持续。"现在是科 技/AI周期的早期阶段，整体环境接近见顶前1.5—2年。"他认为，当前微观情况是健康的，AI投资资金来自现金流，开展巨额投资的企业的杠杆率较低，估 值不高于其余市场。在新兴市场，确定AI受益者约占指数的23%，贡献2025年回报率的42%以上。预计2026年AI股票的每股收益增长可能保持20%以上， 2027年恢复常态。总的来说，继续交易AI叙事是合理的。 Sunil Tirumalai还提到，"我们更看好中国公司（相较于韩国）。它们是新兴市场独有的、面向消费者的AI股票，而且估值并未回升太多。MSCI中国仍是我 们在较大市场中的主要超配市场。" 又有大佬看空美国股市，"新债王"Gundl ...

Core Insights - The electronic sector has significantly outperformed the market since 2025, driven by substantial capital expenditures and demand for computing power from major companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, which collectively spent nearly $100 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 70% [1] - The demand for high-end PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) has surged due to the explosion of computing power, particularly for AI servers, which require advanced PCB designs [1] - The global PCB market is projected to approach $95 billion by 2029, with the specialized PCB market for AI and high-performance computing expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% from 2024 to 2029 [1] Semiconductor Sector - In Q3 2025, top performers in the semiconductor sector included companies like Silan Micro with a 1109% year-on-year growth and Geke Micro with 519% [2] - The strong performance of Nvidia and Google's AI advancements indicate that the AI industry is in an accelerating growth phase, presenting opportunities in the PCB sector as it aligns with AI chip upgrades [2] PCB Sector - Companies in the PCB sector, such as Shenghong Technology and Shennan Circuit, reported significant revenue and net profit growth, reflecting the rapid increase in orders for AI servers and related equipment [1][2] - The PCB market is experiencing a transformation driven by AI, which is reshaping the value chain of the electronic industry and creating new growth opportunities [2] Market Activity - On November 24, 2025, the PCB sector saw active trading, with stocks like Pengding Holdings and Huadian Shares rising over 1%, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - The electronic ETF (515260), which focuses on core leaders in the electronic sector, has attracted significant investment, with a total of 11.2 million yuan in inflows over three days, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's future performance [3] Investment Tools - The electronic ETF (515260) and its linked funds are designed to track the electronic 50 index, focusing on semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, including high-demand areas like AI chips and 5G [5][6] - The ETF's composition heavily features the Apple supply chain, which accounts for 44.63% of its holdings, benefiting from the anticipated strong performance of Apple's product line [6] - Government policies are supporting the semiconductor industry, aiming for self-sufficiency and leveraging AI to enhance consumer electronics, positioning the electronic sector for potential growth [6]