经济学家朱宁：买房从来没有刚需，楼市预计2027年见底

Group 1 - The overall trend in the real estate market is stabilizing, but opinions vary on the timeline for recovery, with some predicting a rebound this year and others suggesting it may take three to five years [1] - Economist Zhu Ning predicts a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-30% by early 2024, despite recent stabilization due to policy support, as the market has entered a downward trend again [3][5] - Long-term factors such as demographic shifts, slowing urbanization, and changing attitudes among young people are driving a deep adjustment in the real estate market, shifting the perception of housing from an investment to a consumer good [3][6] Group 2 - Zhu Ning's previous warnings about the real estate market, particularly regarding the "implicit guarantee" that inflated housing prices, have gained attention as the market dynamics shift [5] - The notion of "housing as a necessity" is challenged, with the argument that effective demand is more relevant than the concept of "just demand," emphasizing the need for housing to meet actual living requirements rather than being viewed as an investment [6][8] - The expectation that buying a home guarantees wealth accumulation has reversed, leading to a new focus on selling homes rather than buying, which is crucial for stabilizing the market [6][8]