全球视角 | 特朗普关税关键一周！“关税谈判对投资不利的迹象越来越明显”

Group 1 - The average tariff in the U.S. is currently estimated to be slightly below 13.5%, significantly higher than last year's 2.5%, with potential increases to 16% if an agreement is reached with the EU [2] - The trade barriers established by the U.S. under the Trump administration are expected to have a long-term negative impact on global trade and investment, with predictions of a $2 trillion economic shock by the end of 2027 [2] - Major U.S. companies like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have reported that tariffs have negatively affected their profitability, although there has not yet been a significant inflationary impact [5][6] Group 2 - The uncertainty caused by tariffs is leading to a significant delay in investment decisions among global companies, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see approach [3][7] - The construction and equipment procurement data in the U.S. are weak, contributing to a forecasted GDP growth rate of around 1% for the second quarter, indicating stagnation in non-residential investment [6][7] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) globally, with a notable drop of 11% in 2024, as investors face increased uncertainty [8][9] Group 3 - The recent decision to impose tariffs on tomatoes from Mexico has adversely affected companies like NatureSweet Tomatoes, which relies on imports for production inputs [8] - The automotive industry in Japan is experiencing similar concerns, with a predicted GDP impact of 0.55% from new tariffs, which is still above Japan's average growth rate [9] - The overall economic indicators related to trade are expected to show contraction this year, reflecting a broader trend of investment fatigue and slow productivity growth [10]