沪铜偏弱震荡 社会库存小幅回升【7月29日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is currently experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and is awaiting more definitive guidance as the August 1 deadline approaches [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The night trading session for copper opened slightly higher but fell back, closing down by 0.18% [1] - Domestic demand is currently weak, leading to a limited accumulation of social inventory [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are anticipated, with the market expecting the Fed to maintain its current stance [1] Group 2: Trade Developments - A trade framework agreement was reached between the U.S. and the EU, reducing market uncertainty [1] - Ongoing attention is required on the progress of U.S.-China negotiations [1] - There are rumors regarding the potential implementation of tariffs on imported copper by the U.S. on August 1, including possible exemptions [1] Group 3: Chilean Copper Tariffs - Chile's finance minister indicated expectations for U.S. copper tariff exemptions, leading to a significant drop in U.S. copper prices, which affected LME and Shanghai copper prices [1] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports; if exemptions are granted, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will narrow significantly [1] - Despite potential exemptions, U.S. copper prices are expected to remain higher than non-U.S. markets due to ongoing tariffs [1] Group 4: Processing Fees - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are still operating at low levels, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [1]