降息延迟满足？黄金机会几何？领峰贵金属深剖美联储内部鹰派博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a consensus among institutions that a rate cut is not expected. However, if the Fed surprises the market with a rate cut, it could lead to significant volatility in gold prices, presenting a potential investment opportunity [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by tariffs and inflation, with a notable increase in average tariff rates to 20%-30% expected in 2025, which is contributing to inflationary pressures [3]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has risen to over 70%, but officials have indicated that any decision will depend on the impact of tariffs on inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other regions, with the European Central Bank having cut rates seven times and other central banks like the Bank of England and those in Canada and New Zealand also implementing significant rate cuts [5]. - This divergence is contributing to a weakening U.S. dollar, which is supporting gold prices above 3300 [5]. Group 3: Gold Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Fed meeting closely, as it could provide critical insights into future monetary policy and potential gold investment strategies [6].