日本“走出通缩”已进入第三年？

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing perception among economists that Japan's economy may be experiencing a "supply shortage" due to production capacity not keeping up with orders, contrasting with the government's assessment of demand deficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Gap - The supply and demand gap is a crucial indicator for assessing economic conditions and price trends, with negative values indicating economic stagnation and positive values suggesting overheating [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office have reported negative supply and demand gaps in recent years, leading to repeated fiscal stimulus measures aimed at boosting demand [1]. - The Cabinet Office has not declared an end to deflation despite a 3% increase in prices, primarily because the supply and demand gap remains negative [1]. Group 2: Discrepancies in Estimates - Private sector estimates, such as those from Societe Generale and Mizuho Research, indicate that Japan's supply and demand gap has been positive since late 2021 and mid-2022, respectively [2]. - The discrepancy between official and private estimates is significant, with a difference of 14 trillion yen (approximately 88 billion USD) reported for the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Economists attribute the positive supply and demand gap to severe supply capacity shortages rather than economic overheating, particularly highlighting labor shortages [2]. Group 3: Labor Market and Productivity - The potential growth rate, which reflects supply capacity, is influenced by labor, capital investment, and technological innovation, with labor time decreasing due to reforms [3]. - Labor time in Japan is expected to remain below 2019 levels until 2024, primarily due to policies limiting overtime and promoting paid leave [3]. - The Bank of Japan acknowledges the negative impact of labor shortages on supply capacity, indicating a more severe labor market tightness than what macroeconomic supply and demand gaps suggest [3]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Growth - Insufficient investment in machinery has also hindered economic growth, with Japan's capital investment contribution being only one-eighth of that of the United States since 2020 [4]. - Redirecting retained earnings towards investments in growth areas such as artificial intelligence is deemed essential for economic progress [4].