惠誉：仅凭美国关税不会引发欧盟评级下调

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU goods, while significant, is not expected to directly trigger downgrades of sovereign ratings for EU member states [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has agreed to impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, which has led to strong dissatisfaction from Germany and France, with leaders warning of significant economic damage to the EU [1][2]. - Fitch analyst Ed Parker states that the 15% tariff aligns with the agency's assumptions since March, suggesting no substantial change in economic forecasts [1][3]. - Despite the tariff increase, Fitch believes that the impact has largely been accounted for in their analysis, and thus, the recent tariff actions will not lead to immediate adjustments in their economic outlook for the region [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Sentiment - The euro has continued to decline, dropping 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1555, marking its lowest level in five weeks [3]. - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French Prime Minister François Bayrou have expressed that the agreement will cause considerable damage to Germany, Europe, and even the U.S. itself, with Bayrou labeling the day as "dark" for the EU [2]. Group 3: Future Risks - While Fitch maintains its baseline scenario, it acknowledges potential risks, stating that the tariff increase itself is not expected to drive rating changes for EU countries [3][4]. - However, the agency warns that the tariffs could exacerbate existing credit pressures within the EU, adding uncertainty to future economic stability [1][4].