“过山车”行情再现！焦煤多空博弈加剧，多晶硅独树一帜，玻璃期货底部抬升

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Recent volatility in commodity markets has led to significant price corrections, with futures for coking coal, glass, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate experiencing declines of 12%, 12%, and 4% respectively since July 28 [1][2] - The rapid increase in commodity prices was driven by speculative trading, but recent risk control measures from exchanges have cooled market sentiment, resulting in profit-taking and a reduction in open positions [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices surged significantly, with domestic Shanxi region prices increasing by 80-150 CNY/ton last week, and a cumulative increase of over 400 CNY/ton since late June [3] - Following the price correction on July 28, the market saw a decline in coking coal prices, with Mongolian 5 coking coal dropping from 1050 CNY/ton to around 960-1000 CNY/ton [3] - The overall inventory of coking coal is shifting from mines to downstream users, with a decrease in mine inventories and an increase in inventories at downstream coking plants and steel mills [3][4] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Insights - Polysilicon futures prices increased by 75% from June 25 to July 24, but the market is now experiencing a cooling period as speculative trading diminishes [6][7] - Despite the rise in prices, the fundamental supply-demand situation has not improved significantly, with production expected to reach 110,000 tons in July, a 10% increase month-on-month [7] - The market is currently characterized by a contradiction between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, leading to a cautious outlook for future price movements [8] Group 4: Glass Market Trends - Glass futures prices rose by 39.8% from early July to the peak, driven by market sentiment and industry self-regulation, but have since faced a significant downturn [9][10] - The demand for glass is expected to decline due to cyclical factors in the real estate sector, although the pace of decline may slow in the latter half of the year [10][11] - The overall inventory levels are decreasing as manufacturers engage in destocking, but the sustainability of demand remains uncertain [10][11]