对话野村苏博文：美联储或到12月才降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates soon despite pressure from President Trump, with expectations for a rate cut pushed to December [1][4] - The job market remains strong, and most Fed officials believe the economy can withstand higher rates, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts [1][4] - The Chicago Fed's financial conditions index has dropped to a three-year low, suggesting a relatively loose financial environment [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Current inflation rates in the U.S. are relatively low, with June's consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, and core CPI increasing by 2.9% [2] - Future inflation is expected to rise due to factors such as increased imports, labor shortages in key industries, and potential fiscal stimulus related to the upcoming midterm elections [2][3] - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is seen as a long-term factor, potentially lowering inflation pressure over time, but initial investments may raise costs [3] Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump's ongoing pressure on Fed Chair Powell may not significantly alter Fed policy, as the independence of the Fed is protected by institutional frameworks [5][6] - The potential appointment of a shadow Fed chair by Trump could complicate Powell's position, especially if inflation rises in the coming months [5] - The risk of losing Fed independence is noted, which could lead to adverse effects on the economy and market if interest rates are kept too low [6] Group 4: Global Investment Trends - There is a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. assets, with a more diversified asset allocation emerging as investors hedge against dollar risks [7] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 95 by year-end due to slowing U.S. economic growth and rising inflation [7] - U.S. economic growth is projected to be below 2% potential growth, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [7] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by over $3 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability given the current low unemployment rate [8] - The U.S. public debt is expected to remain high, with budget deficits projected to exceed 6% of GDP [8] - The demand for U.S. debt from foreign central banks is decreasing, leading to a more vulnerable bond market reliant on private sector investors [9]