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【晨观方正】化工行业事件点评 / 东鹏饮料 / 7月政治局会议将如何影响债市?20250729

Group 1: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The China Pesticide Industry Association launched a three-year "Rectification Action" to address issues like illegal production and hidden additives in the pesticide industry, aiming for improved market order and product quality by the end of 2027 [2][3]. - In 2022, 1.5% of pesticide samples tested were found to be fake, with illegal producers compromising product integrity, which poses risks to food and ecological safety [3]. - The pesticide industry has faced significant price declines, with the China Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index dropping 64.67% from its peak in October 2021 to 74.82 points as of July 20, 2025, leading to a 92.53% decrease in net profits for listed companies in 2024 compared to 2022 [4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on major pesticide products like glyphosate and companies with cost advantages, such as Yangnong Chemical [5]. - Companies expected to benefit from improved quality standards include Yangnong Chemical and Limin Co., as the industry moves towards a price recovery phase [5]. Group 3: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 36.37% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 10.737 billion yuan, and a 37.22% increase in net profit, totaling 2.375 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company is transitioning into a multi-category beverage enterprise, launching new products that cater to health trends and expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [7]. - Revenue projections for Dongpeng Beverage are optimistic, with expected revenues of 20.78 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 30.07 billion yuan by 2027, alongside net profits increasing to 6.37 billion yuan in 2027 [8].