证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 2025H1 业绩预增公告点评：收入符合预期， 成长底色依旧 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,263 | 15,839 | 20,856 | 26,004 | 30,820 | | 同比（%） | 32.42 | 40.63 | 31.67 | 24.69 | 18.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,040 | 3,327 | 4,654 | 6,018 | 7,347 | | 同比（%） | 41.60 | 63.09 | 39.90 | 29.31 | 22.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.92 | 6.40 | 8.95 | 11.57 | 14.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 73.89 | 45.31 | 32.39 | 25.05 | 20.52 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

投资要点 事件：公司发布2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，预计25H1 实现营业收入106.3-108.4 亿元，同比+35.0%～ 37.7%；归母净利润23.1-24.5 亿元，同比+33.5%～41.6%；扣非归母净利润22.2-23.6 亿元，同比+30.1% ～38.3%，预计25Q2 实现营业收入57.8-59.9 亿元，同比+31.7%～36.5%；归母净利润13.3-14.7 亿元，同 比+24.6%～37.8%；扣非归母净利润12.6-14.0 亿元，同比+16.5%～29.4%。 高基数+费率提升，净利率同比略有回落。根据业绩预告，单Q2 净利率/扣非净利率中枢分别约23.8%、 22.6%，同比有所回落，我们预计主因整体费用端相对保持刚性：1）成本端看，25Q2 白砂糖成本仍处 同比回落通道（以柳州白糖市场价价格参考，25Q2 均价同比下降约-5.9%），成本助益下预计主业毛利 率有望保持相对稳定，但规模效应影响下预计新品毛利率与整体仍有差距；2）费用端看，24 年同期低 基数，1 则24 年冰柜基本于24Q1 前置投放、24Q2 冰柜投放费用较少，25Q2 保持正常投放；2 则25Q2 ...

7 月 11 日公司发布业绩预告，25H1 预计实现营收 106.3-108.4 亿 元，同比+35.0%～37.7%；实现归母净利润 23.1-24.5 亿元，同比 +33.5%～41.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 22.2-23.6 亿元，同比 +30.1%～38.3%。其中单 Q2 预计实现营收 57.8-59.9 亿元，同比 +31.7%～36.5%；实现归母净利润 13.3-14.7 亿元，同比+24.6%～ 37.8%；实现扣非归母净利润12.6-14.0亿元，同比+16.5%～29.4%。 Q2 收入增长中枢落在 34%+，收入保持高增长态势。主要系 1）特 饮基本盘稳健，预计增速保持在 25%以上，贡献主要增量。2）公 司积极探索多品类发展，培育新的增长点，补水啦、果汁茶持续 扩张网点，大包装+一元乐享提升复购，预计月销环比提升，新品 带来多元增量贡献。 3）考虑到新品一元乐享中奖率倾斜，公司 借助冰冻化、数字化优势进行终端建设，预计动销表现更为亮眼。 Q2 扣非净利率受产品结构+费投节奏扰动，高基数下具备韧性。 以中枢计算，25Q2 归母净利率为 23.8%，同比-0.50pct；扣非净 利率为 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 12 日 茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250707-20250711 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 绩分化 相关研究 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 ⚫ 投资分析意见： ...

事件：公司发布2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，2025 年上半年公司预计实现营业收入106.30-108.40 亿 元，同比+35.01%至+37.68%，预计实现归母净利润23.10-24.50 亿元，同比+33.48%至+41.57%，预计实 现扣非归母净利润22.20-23.60 亿元，同比+30.06%至+38.26%。 全国化稳步推进，多品类持续提供增长动力。单25Q2 看，公司预计实现营业收入57.82-59.92 亿元，同 比+31.7%至36.5%，预计实现归母净利润13.30-14.70 亿元，同比+24.7%至+37.8%，预计实现扣非归母 净利润12.61-14.01 亿元，同比+16.5%至+29.4%。 25 年上半年，在渠道方面，公司始终以"动销指导相关的经营活动"作为公司的明确共识，持续推进全 国化战略，通过精细化渠道管理，不断加强渠道运营能力，继续加强冰冻化建设，提高全品项产品的曝 光率、拉动终端动销；在产品方面，东鹏特饮基本盘持续夯实，增长稳健，同时，积极通过多品类发展 培育新的增长点；在产能方面，25 年4 月，海南生产基地开始动工，预计27 年建成，作为公司在全国 布局的 ...

每经记者｜范芊芊 每经编辑｜文多 并购重组 达嘉维康：拟收购安徽达嘉维康60.85%股权 达嘉维康公告称，公司拟以自有资金或自筹资金收购安徽达嘉维康健康大药房有限公司（文中简称安徽 达嘉维康）60.85%的股权，交易价格为1.16亿元。交易完成后，安徽达嘉维康将成为公司控股子公司， 纳入公司合并报表范围。 冀中能源：拟6.69亿元收购京能锡林郭勒能源49%股权 冀中能源公告称，公司拟现金收购京能锡林郭勒能源有限公司（文中简称京能锡林郭勒能源）49%股 权，收购价格为6.69亿元。标的公司建设规模为2×660MW高效超超临界间接空冷机组，均于2023年投 产发电，目前已与国家电网有限公司华北分部签订购售电合同。 博敏电子：终止收购奔创电子股权计划 博敏电子公告称，公司与梅州市奔创电子有限公司（文中简称奔创电子）股东熊冬梅签署的股权收购框 架协议终止。双方未能就主要交易条款达成共识，无法签署正式的股权转让协议。终止收购不会对公司 正常生产经营及财务状况产生不利影响。 增减持 京北方：公司员工持股平台拟减持不超公司3%的股份 京北方公告称，公司实际控制人之一致行动人和道（天津）企业管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称 ...

农夫山泉最先发力，1.5L装的东方树叶一经问世，便被消费者围观。青柑普洱、茉莉花茶、乌龙茶三种 口味，一箱6瓶，优惠后的价格为59.4元。 更大的容量，更低的价格，更有冲击力的包装，饮料行业的内卷已经走进了全新的阶段。 作为趋紧的消费市场中，不多的亮点，饮料行业在2024年实现了极为可观的爆发。尼尔森IQ数据显 示，2024年1-11月饮料全渠道销售额同比前一年增长7.8%，其中线下增长7.4%，线上增长11.6%，其中 健康化饮品代表性的即饮茶和功能饮料分别增长了16.6%和12.1%，碳酸饮料则下降了0.8%。其中，1- 11月的无糖茶销售额增速不减，同比增速60%。 进入7月，高温难耐。酷热的天气也带动着瓶装饮料市场进入了旺季。 但进入2025年，这种势头是否还能持续，就需要打个问号了。无糖茶的增长势头有了明显的减弱，电解 质饮料后生可畏，但体量仍然有限，而有糖茶作为饮料市场的基本盘，头部品牌增长依旧乏力，而后来 者却出现了大举增长的架势。 站在2025年的中间节点，回望饮料行业的发展，这或将成为一个新旧格局交替的变化之年。 无糖茶：东方树叶和其他 不再是顶流的无糖茶，可谓是几家欢喜几家愁。 马上赢品牌 ...

Core Insights - The Lin Muqin family ranks among the top ten in Shenzhen's New Fortune 500 list with a holding market value of 77.77 billion yuan, improving their overall ranking by 23 places compared to previous years, reflecting the success of Dongpeng Beverage and Lin Muqin's business acumen [1] Company Development - Dongpeng Beverage originated as a state-owned beverage producer in Shenzhen, primarily manufacturing soy milk and herbal tea, but faced near bankruptcy with annual revenue below 20 million yuan [2] - In a critical moment, Lin Muqin invested 4.6 million yuan to transition the company from state-owned to private, becoming the largest shareholder and embarking on a challenging entrepreneurial journey [2] - Recognizing the potential in the functional beverage market, Lin Muqin launched Dongpeng Special Drink in 2009 with innovative packaging and a competitive pricing strategy, quickly gaining recognition among blue-collar consumers [2][6] Brand Expansion - To enhance brand visibility, Dongpeng signed celebrity endorsement deals and invested in advertising through major platforms, leading to significant market presence [6] - The company has diversified its product offerings, launching "Dongpeng Supplement Water" in 2023, which achieved nearly 1.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, marking it as a new growth driver [10][11] - The introduction of the "Shangcha" series and "Dongpeng Daka" coffee brand reflects the company's response to consumer demand for healthier options and diverse flavors [14] Marketing and Sales Strategy - Dongpeng has established a robust sales network with over 3,000 distributors and 4 million active retail outlets, with significant revenue contributions from key regions [15] - The company employs innovative marketing strategies, including a "one code for one item" system and data-driven decision-making processes to enhance consumer engagement and optimize supply chain management [15][18] - Collaborations with major events and targeted advertising campaigns have strengthened brand recognition, particularly among younger demographics [16] Future Outlook - Dongpeng aims to continue its growth trajectory by focusing on innovation and quality while exploring global market opportunities, solidifying its position as a leading national beverage brand [16]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. is forecasting a significant increase in profits and revenue for the upcoming period, indicating strong business performance and growth potential [1][2][3] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects profits to range between 231 million to 245 million yuan, representing an increase of 57.941 million to 71.941 million yuan compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 33.48% to 41.57% [1] - An alternative profit estimate is provided, with expected profits between 222 million to 236 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 51.309 million to 65.309 million yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 30.06% to 38.26% [2] Group 2: Revenue Expectations - The company anticipates achieving operating revenue between 1,063 million to 1,084 million yuan, which would be an increase of 275.671 million to 296.671 million yuan compared to the previous year's revenue of 787.329 million yuan [3] Group 3: Reasons for Performance Increase - The growth is attributed to the ongoing national strategy, refined channel management, and enhanced operational capabilities, which have improved product visibility and sales [2] - The company is also focusing on solidifying its core product base while exploring multi-category development to create new growth points [2]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]