楼市风云变！马云预言再现，2025年楼市将迎来大转折？

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing significant changes, with previously lucrative property investments losing their appeal, particularly in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, where high-priced school district properties are underperforming [1][2] - Property prices have seen drastic declines, with examples such as the Huqing Jiayuan community in Beijing, where prices dropped from 14.8 million yuan for a 100 square meter unit in 2021 to below 10 million yuan now, representing a decrease of 30-40% [1][2] - In Shenzhen, the price per square meter fell from a peak of 145,000 yuan in 2020 to around 60,000-70,000 yuan, nearly halving [1][2] Group 2 - Developers are facing severe inventory challenges, with unsold properties in China sufficient to accommodate the entire residential housing stock of Germany, highlighting a significant oversupply [2][4] - In a specific county in Shandong, 1.2 million square meters of new housing were built over three years, but only 200,000 square meters were purchased annually, leading to a continuous decline in property prices [2] - Developers are burdened with heavy debts, needing to repay 230 billion yuan in the first half of the year, prompting them to resort to price cuts and additional incentives to stimulate sales [2][4] Group 3 - Policy adjustments, such as Shenzhen's second-hand housing price guidance and Beijing's school district reallocation, have contributed to a decrease in speculative buying, further dampening buyer sentiment [2][4] - The overall transaction volume in the real estate market is declining, with a significant increase in second-hand listings, such as over 200,000 in Guangzhou and 120,000 in Shenzhen, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - Market sentiment has shifted, with former confident buyers now becoming cautious, and even aggressive discounting by developers failing to generate sufficient purchasing enthusiasm [4]