ExxonMobil Before Q2 Earnings: Time to Hold the Stock or Reassess?

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report a significant decline in second-quarter earnings and revenues due to lower oil and natural gas prices, with earnings estimated at $1.49 per share, reflecting a 30.4% year-over-year decrease [2][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $82.8 billion, indicating an 11% decline from the previous year [2]. - XOM has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.58%, but the current model does not predict an earnings beat for this quarter [3][4]. Market Conditions - The average spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the second quarter were lower than in the first quarter, with prices of $63.54, $62.17, and $68.17 per barrel for April, May, and June respectively, compared to $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel in the first quarter [7]. - Lower oil prices are expected to reduce XOM's upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion, while natural gas price changes may decrease profits by $300 million to $700 million [8]. Valuation Metrics - XOM's current EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.90, which is above the industry average of 4.35, indicating that the stock may be overvalued despite its lower price compared to peers like BP and Chevron [6][11]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances XOM's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, a region known for low production costs [13]. - The company is also investing in alternative energy projects, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, which present potential growth opportunities but require significant capital [14]. Competitive Landscape - Other major energy players like Chevron and BP are also set to report second-quarter earnings, with Chevron having a positive Earnings ESP of +3.63% and BP at 0.00% [15][16].