“反内卷”点燃期市暴力拉升行情，交易所限仓降温，多个热门品种回调

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market has experienced significant declines, particularly in popular varieties such as glass, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, with drops exceeding 5% as of July 29, following a nearly universal downturn on July 28 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since June, coking coal and lithium carbonate have seen substantial price increases, with some commodities rising over 80%, leading to a large accumulation of profit-taking positions [1] - As of July 29, the liquidity in lithium carbonate decreased by 1.315 billion yuan, with a total outflow of 2.938 billion yuan on July 28. Coking coal and glass also saw significant outflows of 4.13 billion yuan and 1.417 billion yuan, respectively, in the last two trading days [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - On July 25, both coking coal and lithium carbonate futures received "reduction orders" from exchanges, limiting the daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients [5][6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange imposed a limit of 500 contracts for the JM2509 coking coal futures and 2,000 contracts for other coking coal futures, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange set a limit of 3,000 contracts for the LC2509 lithium carbonate futures [5][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price surges in commodities like coking coal and lithium carbonate were unsustainable, with the exchanges' intervention aimed at cooling the overheated market [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have varying impacts on different futures, significantly affecting commodities like polysilicon, coal, and glass, while having a more emotional impact on lithium carbonate [7][8] - The long-term trend for lithium carbonate prices will depend on the clearing of supply pressures from upstream resources, with expectations of continued oversupply until 2025 [8]