Microsoft: Why I Think It Is Poised To Beat Wall St's Margin Estimates

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on sectors with perceived potential against the S&P 500 [1] - A generalist approach is adopted, allowing for exploration and investment across various sectors, with typical holding periods ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] Research Methodology - The company maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and performance indicators compared to consensus estimates [1] - In addition to company filings, relevant industry news and reports are monitored to provide a holistic view of the stock's performance [1] - A deep dive into leadership changes, particularly CEO transitions, is conducted to assess the background and past performance of key leaders [1] Valuation Approach - The company rarely utilizes Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, believing they offer limited value [1] - Instead, the focus is on evaluating how a company has performed historically and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates [1]