作者： 老鬼的逻辑 来源：雪球 幂次分布 ， 再次推演了 复利投资的最优解=重仓长周期确定性的高赔率 。 置顶帖也证明过 ： 高赔率是投资回报的第一驱动力 。 前帖也有结论 ： 投资回报幂律分布 。 到这里 ， 脑子快的人会闪出一个推论 ： 高赔率也是幂律分布 ！ 抱歉 ！ ！ 逻辑不通 ！ ！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 「 投资回报幂律分布 」 x 「 高赔率是投资回报的第一驱动力 」 ， 并不能推导高赔率一定是幂律分布 ， 当然 ， 也不能证伪高赔率不是幂律分布 。 逻辑漏洞在于 ， 复利公式本身就是一个递归函数 ， 回报收益可以成为再投资本金 ， 自带幂律加速 ， 就像你坐在一辆加速行驶的火车中 ， 即使 你在匀速步行 ， 甚至是静止不动 ， 你都是加速的 。 所以 ， 一个容易被忽视的重要命题 ： 高赔率分布 ， 是否也是幂律分布 ？ 这个问题重要 ， 不只是因为高赔率是第一驱动力 ， 而是 ： 只有确定了高赔率的分布性 ， 才能推演一个更重要的命题 ： 捕获高赔率的最优解又是什么 ？ 在这个命题上 ， ...

通信行业动态报告 2026 年 03 月 28 日 Micro LED CPO 专题 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 张宁 | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书： S0590523120003 | | 邮箱： | zhangnyj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 范宇 | | | 执业证书： S0590525110074 | | 邮箱： | fanyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -20% 20% 60% 100% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 通信 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 Micro LED 光互联是更高速率时平衡"传输距离、功耗与可靠性"的新构想。其 核心理念来自于 2025 年微软提出的 MOSAIC 新型光互联技术，从"窄而快"转 向"宽而慢"，即传统的铜缆和光链路依赖少量的高速通道，而 MOSAIC 架构将 少量高速串行通道转变为数百个并行的低速光通道。例如，使用 400 个微小的 LED 光源，每个 20um, 给 4 ...

And David Katz is with us, Matrix Asset Advisors, president, chief investment officer. David, I'm glad you're here because now we saw the market go higher today, sell off again on the headlines back and forth with Iran. Um, look, it may be longer than what people thought.I know the president's trying to wrap it up. >> For the very short term, the market is obsessed with what's going on overseas. And we'd say to investors, don't try to trade up on that.What you saw Monday morning is futures were down 400 poi ...

That one of the highest quality stocks in the market goes from $555 in October 2025 to $366 is something that, if not all, most investors makes us ask: why?My approach mixes long-term conviction holdings with tactical sector rotations, driven by the belief that investing isn’t about being right, it’s about making money. I focus on undercovered opportunities and momentum-driven sectors. All views are my own and not financial advice.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative positi ...

If you're looking for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks that are trading at a discount to where they should be, look no further. As AI investing excitement has died down, some stocks associated with the trend have been a bit lackluster. This opens up a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as these stocks could easily come roaring back if investor sentiment turns around.Three stocks trading at a deep discount that I think investors should buy now are Micron Technology (MU +0.59%), Nvidia (NVDA 2.13% ...

Investing in artificial intelligence (AI) has been the backbone of the stock market during the past few years, and several exciting investment opportunities have emerged. I think there are several AI stocks that are worth buying right now, although there are likely many more available.These are my top-10 AI stocks to buy right now, and I think that these make for an excellent starting point for anyone looking to get going in AI investing. NvidiaNvidia (NVDA 2.17%) has been the top AI stock pick for a long t ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者史正丞 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 随着2月28日点燃的中东战火持续燃烧了一整个月，美股市场也出现了加速下跌的迹象，特别是曾经光芒万丈的科技巨头。 截至周五收盘， 纳斯达克指数本周累计下跌3.23%，创去年4月"关税冲击"以来最大单周跌幅 。 （纳斯达克指数周线图，来源：TradingView） 个股中， Meta本周表现最差，单周下跌超11% ， 这也是社交媒体巨头自2025年10月以来的最大单周跌幅。市场仍在消化本周公司输掉 具有里程碑意义的"美国社交媒体成瘾案"裁判的影响。 与Meta一起被裁决存在引诱用户沉迷社交媒体的谷歌/Alphabet，本周也下跌近9%。 除此之外，微软本周下跌6.57%， 公司较历史前高已经回撤近34% 。英伟达和亚马逊跌幅近3%，特斯拉跌幅不到2%。 苹果公司是唯一守住上涨状态的科技巨头。 消费电子巨头将在下周（4月1日）迎来成立50周年的里程碑 。 本周也有消息称，公司计划在 现有的ChatGPT合作之外，允许更多的AI公司接入Siri语音助手，具体情况将会在6月初的WWDC大会上披露。 除了 ...

科技巨头遭遇近一年最严重抛售。 当地时间3月27日（周五），美股三大股指全线收跌，截至收盘，道指跌1.73%报45166.64点，标普500指数跌1.67%报6368.85点，纳指跌2.15%报20948.36 点。本周，道指跌0.9%，标普500指数跌2.12%，纳指跌3.23%。 盘面上，大型科技股全线大跌，Meta、亚马逊跌近4%，英伟达、谷歌A、微软、特斯拉跌超2%，苹果跌超1%。 值得一提的是，美股科技巨头遭遇近一年最严重抛售。科技股"七巨头"本周市值累计蒸发超过8000亿美元。其中，Meta本周累计下跌超11%，谷歌A本周 累计跌近9%，微软本周累计跌超6%。 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌1.38%报22300.75点，法国CAC40指数跌0.87%报7701.95点，英国富时100指数跌0.05%报9967.35点。本周， 德国DAX指数跌0.35%，法国CAC40指数涨0.47%，英国富时100指数涨0.49%。 中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.90%，万得中概科技龙头指数跌1.28%。个股方面，小马智行跌近6%，金山云跌超5%，禾赛科技跌近5%， 蔚来跌超4%，小鹏汽 ...

Wall Street analysts commonly offer one-year price projections on stocks they cover. While any individual analyst's forecast for where a stock will be a year from now could be way off in either direction, looking at the average of all those price targets ought to give investors a good idea of where the market in the aggregate thinks the stock could be headed. It also demonstrates whether the community is generally bullish or bearish on a stock, which is why that price target data can be a great tool for tho ...

It was another miserable week. Four weeks since the war started and it's been pretty darn awful. Sadly for the bulls, the history of oil shocks is littered with bare markets.20% draw downs to say raise cash because it's almost never too late to sell something to protect yourself. Today was more of the same. Dow tumbing 7 or 93 points.S&P plunging 1.67% NASDAQ plummeting 2.15%. It's a tough, rough road. My trust is the highest cash position I can recall.But you know what. It is never enough when you have hor ...