来源：环球市场播报 与此同时，人工智能（AI）板块前景疑虑浮现，华尔街目光聚焦英伟达。据知情人士透露，英伟达计 划向OpenAI注资1000亿美元的方案已陷入停滞，芯片制造商高管对该交易提出质疑。然而，英伟达 CEO黄仁勋周六向记者表示："我们将投入巨资。我相信OpenAI，他们的工作令人惊叹，是当今最具影 响力的公司之一。"尽管未透露具体金额，但他强调投资规模"巨大"。 本周将迎来财报与就业数据密集发布的关键周。超100家标普500成分股公司，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和 迪士尼等巨头，将陆续公布财报。尽管本财报季整体表现亮眼，但微软等企业财报发布后股价大幅下跌 的案例，也令市场保持警惕。德意志银行策略师指出，当前企业盈利增长势头有望创下四年以来最高水 平，为市场提供一定支撑。 此外，华尔街正密切关注周五早间公布的美国1月非农就业报告。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，1月新增 就业岗位5.5万个，数据表现将直接影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。此前，美股已因特朗普提名凯 文·沃什出任美联储主席而承压，主要指数集体走低。若提名获确认，沃什将于今年晚些时候接替杰罗 姆·鲍威尔执掌美联储，政策走向不确定性增加。 周一早 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are expressing concerns regarding Microsoft's AI-driven growth strategy, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by over 7% following the release of its fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings [1] Group 1: Azure Performance - Revenue for Microsoft's Azure and other cloud services increased by 39% in the quarter ending December 31, slightly below Wall Street's expectations [2] - CFO Amy Hood indicated that Azure's growth could have exceeded 40% if all available GPUs had been allocated to cloud services instead of being used for first-party applications like Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] Group 2: Strategic Decisions - CEO Satya Nadella emphasized a long-term strategy by allocating supply-constrained chips to areas that enhance customer lifetime value, although this approach has not resonated well with investors [4] Group 3: OpenAI Concerns - Microsoft's remaining performance obligations reached $625 billion by December 31, with 45% linked to OpenAI's expansion initiatives, raising concerns about the sustainability of this investment given OpenAI's projected losses of $14 billion in 2026 [5] - The increasing cash burn of OpenAI has led investors to question whether Microsoft will realize its expected future revenue, especially if OpenAI struggles to meet its capital spending needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced its largest single-day dollar loss in history, with a decline of $357 billion in market value despite reporting strong earnings for Q2 of fiscal 2026, raising questions about investor confidence and future growth prospects [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter increased by 17% to $81.3 billion, with adjusted earnings reaching $4.14 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.91 [1]. - Operating margin stood at 47.1%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue exceeded $50 billion for the first time [1]. Market Reaction - Microsoft shares fell by as much as 12% during intraday trading, closing down 10% at $433.50, marking the seventh-largest percentage decline since the company went public in 1986 [1]. - The stock's performance post-earnings report was notably stagnant, indicating persistent investor concerns [1]. Growth Concerns - Azure cloud platform growth was reported at 38% in constant currency, but fell short of Wall Street's whisper number of 39.4%, contributing to market unease [1]. - Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, highlighting the competitive pressures in the AI and cloud sectors [1]. AI Business Insights - Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI assistant integrated into Office apps, has 15 million paid users, which is only about 3% of the 450 million paid seats in Microsoft 365 [1]. - Concerns were raised regarding 45% of Microsoft's $625 billion in remaining performance obligations being tied to OpenAI, with $281 billion of that backlog committed to a single customer [1]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts expressed skepticism about Microsoft's ability to prove the value of its investments in AI, despite a 16% increase in Microsoft 365 commercial revenue [1]. - Some analysts maintained a positive outlook, with Morningstar keeping a $600 fair value estimate and noting that demand for AI and cloud services continues to outpace supply [1]. - Other analysts, like Wedbush, acknowledged the friction between long-term investments and short-term investor expectations, suggesting that 2026 could be a pivotal year for Microsoft [1].

Group 1: Microsoft - Microsoft has averaged annual returns of 25% over the past decade and continues to grow, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue up 18% year over year and net income rising 12% [2] - The company has a market cap of $3.2 trillion, with a current stock price of $429.91 and a forward P/E ratio of 29, slightly below its five-year average of 30 [3][4] - Microsoft is heavily investing in artificial intelligence, with CEO Satya Nadella emphasizing the importance of AI and cloud services for future growth [4] - The company has a gross margin of 68.59% and a dividend yield of 0.79%, with dividends increasing from $2.09 per share in 2020 to $3.40 recently [4] Group 2: Netflix - Netflix has averaged annual gains of 24% over the past decade, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $12 billion, up nearly 18% year over year, and net income increasing by 29% [5] - The company’s advertising revenue has significantly contributed to its growth, with ad revenue growing more than 2.5 times to over $1.5 billion in 2025 [5] - Netflix's current market cap is $353 billion, with a stock price of $83.47 and a forward P/E ratio of 27, which is below its five-year average of 33 [6][7] - Despite a 12% decline in stock price over the past year due to acquisition uncertainties, the stock is considered appealingly valued [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's disappointment with Microsoft's earnings is primarily due to Azure's growth not meeting high expectations, despite strong overall performance metrics [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter revenue increased by 17% year over year, with operating margins expanding by approximately 160 basis points to 47% [7] - Earnings per share rose by 21% on a constant-currency basis, excluding around $10 billion of OpenAI-related gains [7] Azure Performance - Azure grew 38% year over year in constant currency, surpassing Microsoft's own guidance but falling short of the anticipated 40% growth [2][9] - Microsoft executives indicated that customer demand for Azure is significantly outpacing supply, particularly for advanced AI GPUs, which is intentionally limiting Azure's growth [9][10] Bookings and Backlog - Microsoft's residual performance obligations (RPO) surged by 110% year over year to $625 billion, indicating strong future income potential [4] - Even without OpenAI-related contracts, RPO increased by 28%, reflecting broad-based commercial demand [5] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Morgan Stanley argues that the market is mispricing Microsoft's durability, with a valuation of approximately 21x CY27 earnings estimates [14] - The firm maintains an overweight rating and a price target of $650, suggesting that once investors understand Azure's supply issues, sentiment will improve [15] Microsoft 365 Copilot Adoption - Microsoft reported 15 million paying Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, with over 450 million business users, indicating significant potential for future growth [11] - Daily active users of Copilot have increased tenfold year over year, with 80% of CIOs expecting to use Copilot within the next 12 months [19]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is highlighted as one of the most profitable stocks on NASDAQ, with RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating and a price target of $640 [1]. Financial Performance - Recent quarterly results showed that Microsoft exceeded revenue, earnings, and operating margin estimates, although they did not surpass elevated expectations [2]. - Analysts from RBC Capital noted strong execution and improving visibility, emphasizing the company's AI and cloud growth potential [3]. Analyst Recommendations - Microsoft is considered a top large-cap pick by RBC Capital, with a consensus rating of Strong Buy from 34 analysts and a one-year average price target of $603.95, indicating a 40% upside from the close on January 30 [3]. Strategic Investments - Microsoft is reportedly in discussions to invest approximately $10 billion in OpenAI, reflecting its ongoing commitment to AI technologies [4]. Product and Service Overview - Microsoft is recognized for its diverse range of products and services, including Windows, Azure, Office, LinkedIn, and Xbox, which contribute to its strong market position [4].

Investment in AI Data Centers - Digital Connexion plans to invest $11 billion by 2030 to develop a 1-gigawatt AI-focused data center campus in Andhra Pradesh, highlighting significant interest from both domestic and global investors in AI infrastructure [1] - Google announced a $15 billion investment to build an AI hub and expand data-center infrastructure in India, following a previous $10 billion commitment in 2020 [2] - Microsoft plans to invest $17.5 billion by 2029 to expand its AI and cloud footprint in India [2] - Amazon will invest an additional $35 billion in India by 2030, raising its total planned commitment to approximately $75 billion [2] Strategic Importance of Data Centers - The U.S. cloud giants are racing to add data-center capacity globally, with India emerging as an attractive location due to its engineering talent and demand for cloud services [3] - India's finance minister proposed a tax holiday on revenues from cloud services sold outside India if run from local data centers, aiming to attract foreign investment [4][5] - The budget also includes a 15% cost-plus safe harbor for Indian data-center operators providing services to foreign entities [4] Challenges and Projections - Scaling up data center capacity in India faces challenges such as power shortages, high electricity costs, and water scarcity, which could impact construction and operating costs [6] - India's data-center power capacity is projected to exceed 2 gigawatts by 2026 and could expand to over 8 gigawatts by 2030, driven by capital investments exceeding $30 billion [8] Broader Economic Initiatives - The Indian government is increasing its focus on electronics and semiconductor manufacturing, launching a second phase of the India Semiconductor Mission to enhance domestic production capabilities [10] - The budget raised the outlay for the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme to ₹400 billion (around $4.36 billion) to attract global suppliers and reduce reliance on imports [11][12] - Measures to boost cross-border e-commerce include removing the ₹1 million (around $11,000) value cap per consignment on courier exports, benefiting small manufacturers and startups [15] Long-term Vision - The latest measures emphasize India's ambition to become a long-term hub for global technology infrastructure, focusing on cloud computing, electronics manufacturing, and critical minerals [16]

一夜之间，微软市值蒸发3500亿美元，折合人民币2.4万亿元，跻身美股历史上市值单日损失榜第二高 位。这数字什么概念呢？相当于中国2025年全年军费预算的1.3倍，一个中型省份全年GDP总量，或近 10家千亿级上市公司市值总和。 问题出在哪？微软刚交出的，明明是一份"亮眼财报"，营收813亿美元同比增长17%，净利润385亿美元 飙升60%。挣得多反而跌得惨，为什么呢？因为市场对微软的预期，早已不是赚钱，而是"无限增长"。 微软的估值，建立在三个神话之上：Azure云业务持续高增长、AI商业化能快速变现与OpenAI的"铁 盟"牢不可破。可这一次，这三个神话，同时被戳破了。 首先，支撑微软万亿市值的关键是什么？是Azure云业务。这是微软的"现金奶牛"，也是AI算力的基 石，但最新数据显示，Azure的增速从上季度的40%微降至39%。你没看错，只是降了1%，但在华尔街 眼里，这1%就是"原罪"。 可问题是，这些投入，能赚回来吗？目前，微软为OpenAI提供算力，基本是"免费赞助"，OpenAI的API 收入，微软分不到多少，而AI产品的商业化路径，依然模糊。市场担忧，微软正从利润机器变成烧钱 包袱。 三是， ...

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing its worst month since the Lehman Brothers collapse, with significant declines in stock prices and growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) is on track for its steepest monthly drop since October 2008, with a single-day decline of approximately 6% [1][3]. - Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) saw a drop of over 12%, marking its worst day since the onset of the lockdown [2]. - High-profile software companies like Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR), Oracle Corp (NASDAQ:ORCL), and AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) have all experienced declines of about 20% for the month [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts are increasingly suggesting that the current selloff reflects changing fundamentals rather than just short-term disappointments, as AI technology begins to transform software development and consumption [5]. - Thomas Shipp from LPL Financial raised the question of whether software businesses can survive the advancements in AI, noting the historical scalability of software businesses [5]. - Subscription-based models have traditionally supported premium valuations, but these could be at risk if software companies are displaced by AI advancements [6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Most software producers will need to integrate their own AI enhancements to maintain market share in the evolving landscape [7].

Core Insights - The stock performance of major tech companies diverged post-earnings, with Meta showing significant gains while Microsoft faced declines due to concerns over cloud growth and AI spending [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Meta's stock surged over 10% in one day, driven by productivity gains and AI integration across its platforms [1]. - Tesla's shares rebounded after a sell-off, as investors reacted to a substantial spending forecast related to its shift towards autonomous driving and robotics [2]. - Microsoft's stock was negatively impacted by fears of slowing cloud growth and high AI-related expenditures, leading to a drop in shares for cloud software leaders like Salesforce and ServiceNow [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trends - There is a noticeable bifurcation in the tech sector, with clear distinctions between companies that are thriving and those that are struggling [4]. - Investors are gravitating towards sectors with more apparent growth, indicating a cautious approach towards software stocks amid concerns of an AI bubble [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in software stocks may be overdone, as the benefits of AI are expected to take longer to materialize [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts highlight potential buying opportunities in data platform companies like MongoDB, data warehouse providers such as Snowflake, observability vendors like Datadog, and communications platform companies like Twilio, which have all seen declines alongside broader software stock weakness [6]. - A strong demand for memory and storage solutions for AI is emerging as a clear theme in the market [7].