Perhaps the biggest catalyst driving this buying activity was a September 2025 federal court ruling that Alphabet wouldn't have to sell its Chrome browser. This significant antitrust litigation win for Alphabet removed years of gray clouds and allowed investors to refocus their attention on the company's rapidly growing sales and profits. Arguably, no trillion-dollar stock has been more desired in recent memory by Coatue's billionaire boss than Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG). During th ...

Aswath Damodaran, the ‘Dean of Valuation,’ has issued a stark warning to AI investors that the math simply does not add up. Citing a massive disconnect between upfront infrastructure spending and future earnings, the NYU finance professor revealed he has fully exited his position in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) while maintaining his stake in Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) .The ‘Big Market Delusion’Damodaran argues that the current AI frenzy exhibits classic signs of a “Big Market Delusion,” a cycle where too m ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced an increase driven by optimism surrounding the upcoming earnings reports of major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla [1] - Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the earnings announcements from these companies this week [1] - The focus is shifting to whether the AI-driven market rally can maintain its momentum [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday is a key focus for the week, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [1] - The market is looking for any clues regarding future expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Bitcoin saw a slight increase of 0.3%, reaching $88,250 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is expected to report strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, driven by AI adoption and robust demand across its cloud and productivity segments, despite a premium valuation [2][22]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Microsoft’s revenues is $80.23 billion, reflecting a 15.22% year-over-year growth [2]. - Earnings per share are projected at $3.88, indicating a 20.12% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Microsoft has a history of earnings surprises, with an average surprise of 8.53% over the last four quarters [3]. Factors Influencing Results - Accelerated adoption of AI agents and strong enterprise demand are expected to support the upcoming results [5]. - The Productivity and Business Processes segment is projected to generate revenues between $33.3 billion and $33.6 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 13.8% [6]. - The Intelligent Cloud segment is anticipated to achieve revenues between $30.9 billion and $31.2 billion, reflecting a growth of 25% to 26% [12]. Product and Service Developments - The Microsoft Ignite 2025 conference introduced significant advancements in AI, including Work IQ and Agent 365, enhancing Microsoft’s AI strategy [7][13]. - The bundling of Microsoft Security Copilot with Microsoft 365 E5 licenses adds value for enterprise customers [9]. - The launch of Microsoft 365 Copilot Business targets small and medium businesses, potentially boosting year-end sales [10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft’s shares have declined 7.9% over the past six months, contrasting with the broader sector's growth of 15.8% [21]. - Despite premium valuation, Microsoft’s strong positioning in enterprise AI transformation justifies current multiples [22]. - The company’s integrated ecosystem across productivity, cloud infrastructure, AI tools, and security capabilities creates a competitive moat [22]. Conclusion - Microsoft is positioned for sustained growth, with expected strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026 driven by AI leadership and robust enterprise demand [23].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is significant for the financial markets, with the first Federal Reserve meeting of 2026 and the Q4 earnings results from major tech companies, known as the "Magnificent Seven" [2][3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady during its first meeting of 2026, with a focus on maintaining its independence amid political pressures [3][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, marking the first since the Trump administration's investigation into the Fed's refurbishment costs [4][5]. Group 2: Q4 Earnings from Magnificent Seven - Four out of the seven major U.S. tech companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla, will report their Q4 earnings this week, alongside South Korea's Samsung [6]. - Companies are under pressure to not only meet but exceed earnings forecasts and provide strong guidance to justify their high valuations [7]. Group 3: Yen and Japanese Elections - Japan is preparing for a snap election on February 8, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policies affecting the yen and government bonds [8]. - Analysts express concerns over the yen's stability, particularly in light of Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio of 221% [9]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Bank Meetings - Several emerging market central banks are meeting, with Brazil and Chile expected to maintain their current interest rates, while Colombia is anticipated to cut rates [10][11][12]. - Ghana is expected to make a significant rate cut of 300 basis points due to currency instability [12]. Group 5: Greenland Stabilization - The geopolitical situation regarding Greenland is stabilizing, which could positively impact global stock markets and reduce gold prices, currently above $5,000 an ounce [13][14]. Group 6: Key Global Macro Events - Key economic indicators such as Durable Goods Orders and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with expectations of a slight decrease in initial jobless claims [15][16][17].

此外考虑将一部分资产配置于黄金（对冲货币贬值与尾部风险，但留意近期贵金属连续强劲刷新记录高位，已经严重超买）、其他大宗商品（对冲通胀与地 缘风险）以及基础设施等能产生稳定收益的实物资产。并保留一定比例的现金或短期国债，不仅能在市场暴跌时提供缓冲，更能捕捉未来出现的高确定性机 会。 过去几个月来，科技等增长型板块的表现逊于周期性板块和价值股。但是，大型科技公司凭借扎实的现金流和对AI趋势的卡位，在经济不确定性中反而更 像资金"避难所"，仍有能力带领市场创新高。机构预期，盈利增长、周期性上涨以及人工智能的广泛应用，都将支撑标普500指数和市场波动率，而市场脆 弱性和高风险政策则会加剧市场不稳定性。但无疑，上涨的路径将更为震荡，且其领导地位正从"增长引擎"逐渐转变为"市场系统性风险的集中体现"。 由于近几周市场几乎都被紧张的地缘政治局势所牵引，掩盖了一个事实：本轮财报季的科技公司业绩其实不乏亮点。实际上在已经公布业绩的科技股中，台 积电（财报和指引双双超出市场预期）、网飞（业绩优于预期，但对本季度和今年全年的业绩指引谨慎）和英特尔（营收和每股收益超预期，但本季度业绩 指引低于预测）都交出了不错的成绩单。本周市场继续 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头摩根士丹利近日发布研报称，企业端超大规模数据工作负载持续向 云端迁移，将使微软(MSFT.US)等超大规模云计算服务商们(hyperscalers)在网络安全市场中的份额继续 提升，这也意味着微软等云巨头们不仅持续受益于史无前例的AI应用大浪潮以及公有云增长趋势，还 受益于AI浪潮所带来的强劲"AI+云端网络安全服务系统"需求。 除了微软之外，另一云计算领军者谷歌(GOOGL.US)近期对Wiz发起的大规模收购——预计将于今年完 成并购式交割，也将使其在网络安全领域取得突破。谷歌此前还在2022年收购了网络安全公司 Mandiant。 Marshall等分析师指出："Wiz的一些渠道转售商认为，待完成的收购对销售带来的负面影响更大，尤其 是在并非大型谷歌GCP客户的情况下;但我们也从现有客户处听到非常强烈的意愿，迫切希望在收购完 成后继续使用Wiz。"大摩分析师团队还表示："在网络安全方面，亚马逊可谓是'云计算超级巨头们'这 三者中最为低调的，基本只是围绕旗下的全球最大规模云平台亚马逊AWS的云端工作负载提供安全产 品，但没有面向外部的产品布局。" 此外，大摩分析师团队还指出 ...

Market Analysis by covering: Microsoft Corporation. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

另一方面，花旗集团也在1月21日将微软的目标价从690美元下调至660美元，同时维持"买入"评级。 花旗分析师表示，其分销商调查和合作伙伴核查显示，在微软2026财年第二季度业绩发布前，市场环境 呈现更为复杂的局面。该行预计Azure云服务在第二财季的表现将超出预期，但由于个人电脑(PC)市场 预测疲软，微软非Azure业务的业绩预估已被下调。 值得注意的是，此次调整是瑞穗在对大型软件股群体进行2025财年第四季度业绩预览时作出的。该行分 析师指出，渠道调研整体保持强劲，公共云数据依旧稳健，人工智能(AI)的采用势头非常强劲。 尽管基本面积极，但该行补充称，投资者对AI颠覆性影响的担忧日益加剧，已开始影响软件公司的估 值倍数。瑞穗表示，行业出现了多重估值压缩，这是其下调目标价的主要原因。 智通财经APP获悉，微软公司(MSFT.US)被分析师列为值得长期持有的最佳科技股之一。近日，瑞穗证 券将其对微软股票的目标价从640美元下调至620美元，但维持"跑赢大盘"评级。花旗也下调了目标价， 但仍维持"买入"评级。 ...

SK海力士公司股价大幅跃升，正迈向历史最高收盘水平。据此前报道，该公司是微软(MSFT.US)新型 人工智能芯片先进内存的独家供应商。 Fibonacci Asset Management Global的首席执行官Jung In Yun表示，周二的股价上涨得到了"逢低买盘和 不断增长的HBM(高带宽内存)盈利预期的支撑"。他补充道："我们很可能会再次看到SK海力士的业绩 符合预期。" 另一利好因素来自花旗集团，该机构将SK海力士的目标股价大幅上调56%，至市场最高的140万韩元。 花旗维持对该股的"买入"评级，并开启了为期30天的正面催化剂观察。 分析师Peter Lee在周一的一份报告中写道："内存市场正转向半定制化，内存客户需要在产品实际交付 前一年签订合同。我们预计，2026年全球DRAM/NAND的价格增长将显著超出预期。" 该公司在韩国交易所的股价早盘一度上涨7.7%，抹去了此前因美国总统特朗普最新关税威胁而出现的 跌幅。今年以来，SK海力士股价持续攀升，延续了由人工智能热潮推动的涨势，这家韩国公司的市值 已接近4000亿美元。 据悉，微软于周一发布的每颗Maia 200加速器都将使用六颗SK海力士 ...