当下，美股第四季度财报季仍在进行，以谷歌、微软等为代表的科技巨头们已相继披露业绩。尽管营收与利润普遍录得增长，AI相关业务也实现增长， 但市场关注点却集体转向了这些巨头们为2026年制定的、规模远超预期的"天量"资本支出预算。 根据谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta披露的最新资本支出计划，四家公司均释放了深化AI军备竞赛的信号，在2026年的开支总额合计约6500亿美元(约合4.58 万亿元人民币)。《华尔街日报》指出，这一数额的资本开支接近日本2026年全年的支出预算，并超过德国(约合6230亿美元)和墨西哥(约合5095亿美元)的 财政预算。 在上述科技巨头们看来，AI需求依然强劲，随资本开支"水涨船高"的或是数万亿美元的潜在市场回报。然而，如此激进的"烧钱"计划显然令华尔街投资者 感到不安，市场对于当前人工智能叙事的态度正趋于保守与审慎。 重押云业务与AI基础设施 在上述四家巨头中，亚马逊成为本轮AI军备竞赛最激进的公司，预计2026年的资本支出将达2000亿美元，远超分析师1447亿美元的预估，较2025年约 1310亿美元的资本支出，同比增长超五成；谷歌母公司Alphabet紧随其后，预计2026年资本支 ...

上周，甲骨文也发行了价值250亿美元的债券，并成为2026年首家试水债务市场的大型科技公司。此外，据市场消 息，Meta也计划在今年进行大规模债券发行，以期加速推进在美国境内建设数据中心的计划。 最新的财报则预计，微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta和甲骨文等公司今年在AI基础设施方面支出的投入可能高达7000亿 美元。 当地时间2月10日，瑞银警告称，AI基础设施支出可能已接近峰值。瑞银首席投资办公室当天下调了美国科技板块评 级至中性。 在瑞银发出最新警告后，当天美股收盘，科技板块股价普遍下跌。谷歌股价下跌近1.8%，Meta、亚马逊等公司股价 均下跌近1%。 瑞银下调评级的举措发生在美国软件股经历了一周惨重的暴跌之后。投行杰富瑞分析师也在近期的一份报告中指 出，AI资本支出将面临放缓，这是目前科技行业投资面临最大的不利因素。 不过科技公司扩大AI资本支出的野心并未受到影响。谷歌已于周一发行了罕见的100年期的"世纪债券"，以支持AI基 础设施的扩张。根据IFR的数据，谷歌百年债券的认购额几乎是目标金额的十倍，收益率为 6.05%。 相关统计数据显示，过去3年里，科技巨头在AI基础设施方面的支出增长了超过4倍。而最 ...

7400亿美元的2026年AI资本开支同比增长约70%，正吞噬美股科技巨头经营现金流，除微软外，其他公司自由现金流或转负。AI相 关债务占美国IG债市约14%，资金由股市溢价转向债市承接。随着现金流和融资压力加剧，市场容错率下降，一旦回报兑现节奏放 缓，风险将向更广泛资产蔓延。 当硅谷巨头们的AI资本开支膨胀到接近全年现金流规模时，市场关心的已不再是"值不值"，而是"撑不撑得住"。 据最新公开数据显示，谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta四家超大规模云厂商2026年合计资本支出指引约为 6500亿美元 。 若计入甲骨文（Oracle）与CoreWeave，整体规模上升至 7400亿美元 。 这些数字不仅高于市场预期，而且是 成倍级别的偏离 。 7400亿美元 意味着什么？ 7400亿美元较2025年同比增长约 70%； 它是2025年底市场一致预期（约35%的资本支出增长）的 两倍； 7400亿美元接近整个超大规模云厂商体系 全年经营现金流总量。 更值得警惕的是：高盛分析师Shreeti Kapa指出，如果达到这一水平，这种支出的强度将接近上世纪90年代互联网泡沫巅峰时 期占GDP 1.4%的水平 。虽然仍低于工业革 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT) is increasingly perceived as a value investment, with the Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares ETF (MSFU) experiencing a rapid 50% drawdown since MSFT's peak [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Microsoft is currently viewed as a value play in the market [1] - The Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares ETF (MSFU) has seen a significant decline, indicating market volatility surrounding Microsoft [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Daniel Martins, the founder of DM Martins Research, has extensive experience in investment management and has contributed to over 2,000 articles on platforms like Seeking Alpha [1] - Martins has a background in equity research and macro strategy, having worked with notable firms such as FBR Capital Markets and Bridgewater Associates [1]

每日晨报│2026 年 2 月 11 日 -主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 27,027 | +1.76% | +5.45% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,417 | +1.34% | -1.78% | | 国企指数 | 9,168 | +1.52% | +2.86% | | 沪深 300 | 4,719 | +1.63% | +1.92% | | 上证综合指数 | 4,123 | +1.41% | +3.89% | | 深证成份指数 | 14,208 | +2.17% | +5.05% | | 中小板指 | 8,594 | +1.74% | +4.01% | | 道琼斯指数 | 50,135 | +0.04% | +4.31% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,964 | +0.47% | +1.74% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,238 | +0.90% | -0.01% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 10,386 | +0.16% | +4.58% | | CAC40 指数 | 8,323 ...

来源：格隆汇APP Hawtin还指出，人工智能竞赛中一个关键因素可能决定胜负：专有数据。"数据的所有权将绝对决定谁 能最终胜出。"并以谷歌母公司Alphabet去年的强劲表现为例。Hawtin表示，尽管Alphabet去年起初表现 不佳，但最终仍成为"科技七巨头"中表现最好的公司，全年涨幅达65%，而"这主要归功于其庞大的专 有数据集"。 格隆汇2月11日｜"科技七巨头"——苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达——不断 增长的资本支出，预示着投资者面临的风险增加，并可能成为这些主导公司最终跑输大盘的催化剂。这 是英国基金管理公司Liontrust全球股票主管Hawtin的最新观点。他指出，最近财报中宣布的激进支出计 划是那些寻求可靠回报的股东们最关心的问题。 ...

Summary of Key Points Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the technology sector, specifically focusing on companies related to OpenAI and its products, including ChatGPT and Codex [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - A positive report from CNBC highlighted that OpenAI's CEO, Altman, indicated that ChatGPT has returned to a monthly growth rate of 10% [1]. - The report also noted that Codex experienced a week-over-week growth of 60% [1]. - DADavidson upgraded the rating for "OpenAI and its Orbit" in anticipation of model releases and fundraising efforts, which positively impacted stock prices [1]. - Following the upgrade, Softbank's stock rose by 6%, Oracle (ORCL) increased by 9%, AMD saw a rise of 3.6%, and Microsoft (MSFT) gained 3% [1]. - Despite fluctuations in the market prior to the two major catalysts (fundraising and model release), overall sentiment towards OpenAI remains positive [1]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The market's reaction to the news indicates a growing confidence in OpenAI's future prospects and the potential for continued growth in the AI sector [1].

2月10日，美股明星科技股多数上扬，奈飞涨超3%，迪士尼涨近3%，甲骨文、赛富时涨超2%，微软、 台积电涨近2%，特斯拉涨超1%。 来源：智通财经 ...

Core Insights - The International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC) will take place from February 15 to 19, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing significant advancements in semiconductor technology [2] Group 1: AI Chips - AMD's latest AI GPU, Instinct MI350, features a CDNA4 architecture with a theoretical peak performance increase of 1.9 times compared to its predecessor, and improvements in HBM input/output bandwidth and memory capacity by 1.5 times [2] - Rebellions has developed a large-scale AI inference subsystem using UCIe protocol, achieving a performance of 56.8 TPS on the Llama 3.3 model with 700 billion parameters [3] - IBM's AI accelerator, Spyre, is optimized for inference, boasting a throughput 32% higher than the latest GPUs and energy efficiency 2 to 3 times better [3] - MediaTek's MADiC, a generative diffusion accelerator, achieves performance of 7.4 TOPS/mm² and 17.4 TOPS/W, designed for generative image editing on edge devices [4] - NVIDIA's ALPhA-Vision real-time image processor has a face detection latency of 787 microseconds and an accuracy rate of 99.3% [5] Group 2: Memory Technologies - SanDisk and Kioxia have developed a 3D NAND flash memory with a density of 37.6 Gbit/mm², capable of reaching a storage capacity of 2 Tbit and a write speed of 85 MB/s [6] - Samsung is set to release a DRAM module with a capacity of 36GB and a data transfer rate of up to 3.3 TB/s, utilizing 12 chips stacked together [7] - SK Hynix has developed a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 14.4 Gbps per I/O pin [7] - Samsung will also introduce a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 12.8 Gbps [8] - SK Hynix's 24Gbit GDDR7 DRAM targets mid-range AI inference applications with a data transfer rate of 48 Gbps [8] Group 3: Image Sensors - STMicroelectronics will showcase a lidar receiver with a field of view of 54°×42° and a power consumption of 153 mW [9] - Sony Semiconductor Solutions has developed a Ge-on-Si SPAD sensor array designed for low-power AR/VR applications, with a power consumption of 26 mW at 30 fps [10] - SmartSens Technology's CMOS image sensor features 200 million pixels and supports 8K video recording at 60 fps [11] Group 4: AI Chip Presentations - NVIDIA will present its GB10 processor for desktop AI supercomputers, featuring 20 Armv9.2 cores and a performance of 31 TFLOPS in FP32 mode [12] - STMicroelectronics will discuss the STM32N6 microcontroller series, integrating an Arm Cortex-M55 CPU and a Neural-ART NPU with performance of 600 GOPS and 3 TOPS/W [13] - Microsoft will explain its AI accelerator architecture, MAIA, focusing on packaging technology and power management [13]

这些数字不仅高于市场预期，而且是成倍级别的偏离。7400亿美元意味着什么？ 7400亿美元较2025年同比增长约70%； 它是2025年底市场一致预期（约35%的资本支出增长）的两倍； 7400亿美元接近整个超大规模云厂商体系全年经营现金流总量。 更值得警惕的是：高盛分析师Shreeti Kapa指出，如果达到这一水平，这种支出的强度将接近上世纪90年代互联网泡沫巅峰时期占GDP 1.4%的水平。虽然仍低于工业革命时期的强度，但在现代科技史上已属罕见。 | Company | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2-Year | 100% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Actual | Actual | Guidance | Growth | | | | Consensus capex growth | | | Amazon/AWS | $83.0B | $131.8B | ~$200B | +141% | 90% | | | estimates for Al hyperscaler ...