2026 年 1 月 31 日 公司研究 生产力与企业流程稳健增长，Azure 增长受可分配算力限制 ——微软（MSFT.O）2026 财年二季报业绩点评 要点 事件：美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日盘后，微软发布 FY26Q2 业绩公告。 美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 29 日盘后，微软股价收跌 9.99%。 FY26Q2 业绩超预期系投资收益拉动。FY26Q2 微软实现营业收入 813 亿美元， 同比增长 17%，略高于市场一致预期；实现营业利润 383 亿美元，同比增长 21%，对应营业利润率 47.1%；GAAP 口径下净利润 385 亿美元，同比增长 60%，主要受 OpenAI 投资重估收益拉动；剔除 OpenAI 投资影响后的 non-GAAP 净利润 309 亿美元，同比增长 23%。 Azure 增速维持高位，但收入增长受可分配算力限制。FY26Q2 智能云实现收 入约 329 亿美元，同比增长 29%，整体增速与前期水平接近，主要反映既有 云业务与存量客户扩容的延续；其中 Azure 及其他云服务收入同比增长 39%， 与 FY26Q1 基本持平，增速未进一步上行，公司指 ...

Core Insights - The market reacted positively to Meta Platforms' quarterly results, while Microsoft and Tesla's December-quarter numbers disappointed investors [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Microsoft reported a +28.1% earnings growth and +16.7% revenue growth, exceeding estimates, but faced concerns over Azure's +38% revenue growth and underwhelming guidance [2][3] - Meta's Q4 earnings and revenues increased by +9.3% and +23.8%, respectively, but highlighted margin pressures; however, its effective use of AI in advertising improved click rates by +3.5% and conversion rates by +1% [4] - Meta plans to increase its capital expenditure to $135 billion for the year, up from $72 billion in 2025 and $39 billion in 2024, citing capacity constraints as a reason for the increase [5] Group 2: Market Trends - The Mag 7 group, which includes major tech companies, is projected to see Q4 earnings up +21.9% year-over-year with +18.1% higher revenues, although individual contributions vary significantly [7] - As of now, 167 S&P 500 members have reported Q4 results, showing a +13.1% increase in earnings year-over-year on +7.6% higher revenues, with 77.8% beating EPS estimates [9][19] - The Mag 7 group is expected to account for 25.2% of all S&P 500 earnings in 2025, up from 23.2% in 2024 and 18.3% in 2023, indicating a strengthening earnings outlook [14]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair has led to significant market reactions, particularly in gold and silver, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy and investor sentiment towards inflation and quantitative easing [1][10]. Market Reactions - Gold and silver experienced extreme volatility, with silver prices collapsing by 39% from an all-time high of $121.78 per ounce to a low of about $75, before recovering slightly to $85, marking a 30% decline from the peak [10]. - Gold prices fell by 14% from $5,575 to an intraday low of $4,700, later stabilizing at $4,909, reflecting a 10% drop from the previous day [13]. - The dollar index (DXY) rose by 1.7% from a low of 95.55 to 97.15, indicating a strengthening dollar amidst the market turmoil [14]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Warsh has consistently criticized the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) policies and the size of its balance sheet, advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet in collaboration with the Treasury to avoid market disruptions [3][7]. - His views align with Treasury Secretary Bessent, who has also criticized the Fed for creating "perverse incentives" and failing to control inflation effectively [4]. - Warsh's historical stance as an inflation hawk suggests he may continue to advocate for tighter monetary policies, although the impact of technology on inflation remains uncertain [8][9]. Investment Sentiment - The recent market movements reflect a classic mania in silver, which had surged by 317% over the past nine months and 500% since early 2023, leading to profit-taking and subsequent price drops [11][12]. - Stocks showed minimal reaction to the Warsh nomination, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing slight declines, indicating that investors may be more focused on other factors such as inflation data and corporate earnings [17]. - The Treasury market remained largely unaffected by the nomination, with yields remaining stable [18]. Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, faced declines following the Warsh nomination, with Bitcoin dropping from $90,000 to around $84,000, reflecting a 31% decrease from its all-time high [19].

"21世纪关键技术"关注科技未来发展趋势，研究21世纪前沿科技关键技术的需求，和影响。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要关键技 术研究进展和未来趋势研究。 前言：在上一篇文章中，我们发表了 《大自然规律不允许！德国物理学家指出量子计算可能永远无法成功》， 在本篇将进一步介绍美 国国防高级研究计划局 DARPA 验证量子计算真实性的举措。为验证量子计算的可靠性做出的工作。 美国国防高级研究计划局正在通过一项雄心勃勃的验证计划重新定义全球量子计算竞赛的规则。该机构的量子基准测试计划已将11家 来自美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的企业推进到第二阶段，这些公司必须证明他们能够在2033年前开发出"效益超过成本"的实用级量子计 算机。这一严格的筛选机制标志着量子技术发展从科学探索转向工程验证的关键转折点。 DARPA的量子基准测试计划设定了一个明确且具有挑战性的目标：到2033年实现量子计算的实际商业和军事价值。该计划项目经理乔 ·阿尔特彼得明确表示，他们的"开场立场是怀疑主义"，旨在通过科学严谨性来终结量子计算领域的过度炒作。这种制度化的怀疑态度 反映了美国政府对新兴技术泡沫的警惕，以及对确保联邦投资获得实际回报的坚持。 进入第 ...

Group 1 - OpenAI and Anthropic are accelerating their timelines towards potential 2026 initial public offerings, which may prevent a near-term slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, benefiting companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft [1] - OpenAI needs to demonstrate technical dominance to justify a "frontier leader" narrative for its IPO, while Alphabet is currently favored to hold the "best model" title, creating pressure for private labs to invest heavily in compute [2] - The IPO pressure may shift behavior in the AI infrastructure sector, making compute a primary lever for valuation growth, thus maintaining an "accelerating" regime in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI, indicating a potential strategic shift in cloud partnerships as OpenAI seeks to diversify its infrastructure beyond Microsoft [4] - A significant change in Polymarket odds away from Google could signal a narrative shift, and a confirmed multi-billion dollar investment from Amazon would likely alter the competitive landscape for cloud providers [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. equity markets had a strong start to 2026, but short-term warning signs are emerging [1] - The current market is influenced by AI stocks, which are facing pressure following Microsoft’s earnings report [1][7] - Silver's bull market is showing signs of a classic blow-off top, indicating potential danger for the broader market [2][8] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Microsoft reported a significant increase in CAPEX spending, totaling $37.5 billion last quarter, a 66% year-over-year rise [1] - Concerns regarding Microsoft include a slowdown in its cloud business and reliance on OpenAI for revenue [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Sentiment - February is historically a weak month for markets, with corrections common in mid-term election years [3] - The AAII Sentiment survey indicates that individual investors are overwhelmingly bullish, which is often a contrarian signal [6][7]

Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) just released its Q2 FY2026 earnings , and there is a lot to take away, as highlighted by the biggest single-day drop in stock price for the tech giant sinceAs a detail-oriented investor with a strong foundation in finance and business writing, I focus on analyzing undervalued and disliked companies or industries that have strong fundamentals and good cash flows. I have a particular interest in sectors such as Oil&Gas and consumer goods. Basically, anything that has been unlov ...

Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) just released its Q2 FY2026 earnings , and there is a lot to take away, as highlighted by the biggest single-day drop in stock price for the tech giant sinceAs a detail-oriented investor with a strong foundation in finance and business writing, I focus on analyzing undervalued and disliked companies or industries that have strong fundamentals and good cash flows. I have a particular interest in sectors such as Oil&Gas and consumer goods. Basically, anything that has been unlov ...

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 992.37 points at 32,023.76.The April gold contract was down US$348.80 at US$5,006.00 an ounce on Friday.However, when looking at the past year, gold prices have risen more than 70%.Small said it appears that the decline in metal prices on Friday was a reaction to an announcement by U.S. President Trump that Kevin Warsh will be his choice to replace Jerome Powell as U.S. Federal Reserve chair.“Kevin Warsh, who is more hawkish perhaps than maybe some of the other candidate ...

Core Insights - The market's reaction to Microsoft and Meta's AI strategies highlights a shift from valuing potential to demanding immediate results [2][10][11] Group 1: Microsoft’s Challenges - Microsoft reported earnings that exceeded expectations but saw a nearly 10% drop in stock value, resulting in a loss of $357 billion in market capitalization [1] - The company faces significant infrastructure constraints, particularly a lack of electrical power to utilize advanced AI chips, leading to inventory issues [3][4] - Microsoft's Azure revenue growth slowed from 40% in Q1 to 39% in Q2, indicating that even minor decelerations can be problematic given the high spending expectations [4][12] Group 2: Meta’s Advantages - Meta is also investing heavily in AI, with plans to increase spending to $135 billion in 2026, but its investments are already generating revenue [1][5] - The company reported a 24% increase in advertising revenue to $58.1 billion in Q4 2025, with AI improvements directly enhancing ad performance [6][13] - Unlike Microsoft, Meta's AI advancements can be implemented immediately within existing infrastructure, allowing for quicker monetization [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning to a "Show Me" phase, where companies must demonstrate that their AI investments are yielding immediate returns rather than just future potential [10][15] - Investors are now focused on the ability to deploy infrastructure and generate revenue within a visible timeline, rather than merely announcing large capital expenditures [11][14] - The divergence in stock performance between Microsoft and Meta illustrates the importance of execution and immediate results in the current investment climate [16]