分析师还指出："在过去三年中，'美股七巨头'加上甲骨文的资本支出总额约占经营现金流总额的40%或 更低，但在2025日历年，这一占比已上升至约50%，并预计在2026和2027日历年将达到60%以上。尽管 人工智能驱动的需求为长期投资提供了令人信服的逻辑，但短期后果是自由现金流走弱、资本回报受 限，以及对融资环境的敏感度上升。如果债务成为基础设施扩张更为重要的资金来源，我们预计投资者 的关注点将转向资本密集度更低、更加注重投资资本回报率和资本配置效率的资产。" 智通财经APP获悉，根据Evercore ISI的数据，在人工智能(AI)基础设施支出大举扩张之际，微软 (MSFT.US)预计将成为"美股七巨头"中唯一在2026年实现自由现金流增长的超大规模云服务商。 Evercore指出，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及Meta Platforms(META.US)预计将在2026年出 现自由现金流同比下降，另一家不属于"美股七巨头"的大型云服务提供商甲骨文(ORCL.US)的自由现金 流也预计将出现下滑。相比之下，微软在2026年的自由现金流预计将实现5%的增长，"美股七巨头"中 的另外两 ...

据报道，OpenAI计划到2030年在算力方面总计投入6000亿美元。OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)早在去年10月曾表示，该公司计划到2033年在基础设施方面投入高达1.4万亿美元。 法国巴黎银行分析师Stefan Slowinksi在一份投资者报告中表示："在我们看来，这些修订并不一定反映 出OpenAI变得更加克制。相反，更新后的预测与此前宣布的到2033年1.4万亿美元基础设施承诺大体一 致，资本支出仍明显集中在2030年之后。考虑到OpenAI可能计划到2030年每年在算力方面投入超过 2000亿美元，我们的粗略测算表明，OpenAI最初提出的1.4万亿美元规模仍有可能实现。" 法国巴黎银行股票研究部门表示，OpenAI更新后的人工智能(AI)基础设施资本支出计划，对超大规模云 服务商微软(MSFT.US)和甲骨文(ORCL.US)构成利好。 法国巴黎银行认为，这一更新总体上为OpenAI的主要支持者微软以及其主要基础设施合作伙伴甲骨文 描绘了积极前景。Stefan Slowinksi指出："随着现金消耗前景更加明确，以及OpenAI超过1000亿美元的 融资即将完成(此后 ...

法国巴黎银行认为，这一更新总体上为OpenAI的主要支持者微软以及其主要基础设施合作伙伴甲骨文 描绘了积极前景。Stefan Slowinksi指出："随着现金消耗前景更加明确，以及OpenAI超过1000亿美元的 融资即将完成(此后可能还需要约800亿美元才能实现自由现金流盈亏平衡)，我们认为这在短期内降低 了微软和甲骨文面临的OpenAI对手方风险。OpenAI更新后的营收预期(2030年目标为2800亿美元，较此 前2000亿美元的上调主要来自企业业务)也意味着，如果OpenAI能够实现其目标，微软到2030财年应能 额外获得120亿美元的收入分成(较市场一致预期高出4%)。不过，尽管OpenAI还计划在短期内大幅提高 算力预算，但微软和甲骨文是否会直接受益于这部分新增支出仍不明确，尤其是在亚马逊(AMZN.US) 据称参与本轮融资的情况下。" 据报道，OpenAI计划到2030年在算力方面总计投入6000亿美元。OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)早在去年10月曾表示，该公司计划到2033年在基础设施方面投入高达1.4万亿美元。 法国巴黎银行分析师Stefan Slowinksi ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global financial markets are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and corporate earnings, leading to significant fluctuations in various asset classes. For example, the US stock market declined due to Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of the trade - agreement approval, while the precious metals market rose due to increased risk - aversion [5][6]. - The energy market is influenced by the Iran - US nuclear negotiation, with expectations of increased Iranian oil supply putting downward pressure on oil prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Stock Markets**: US major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) fell, with IBM and American Express leading the decline. European indices (DAX, CAC40, FTSE 100) also closed lower. The reasons include Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of trade - agreement approval [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose due to increased risk - aversion from geopolitical tensions, tariff policy changes, and other factors [6]. - **Energy**: US crude oil and Brent oil futures fell as the Iran - US nuclear negotiation showed signs of progress, increasing the expectation of more Iranian oil supply [7]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, except for LME tin which rose [7]. Important News Macro News - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes dropped 2.1%. The US will stop collecting certain illegal tariffs. There is still a risk of US military strikes against Iran. India postponed a trade delegation plan. China is assessing the impact of US tariff rulings and urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs. The EU suspended the approval of a trade agreement with the US. The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" [9][11]. Energy Futures - Saudi Aramco sold condensate oil. Methanol supply in Southeast Asia is restricted due to planned maintenance. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different forecasts for oil prices, with Goldman Sachs raising price forecasts for Q4 2026 and 2027, and Morgan Stanley expecting a short - term increase followed by a decline [14][16][18]. Metal Futures - The US energy storage market is expected to grow 21%. Lebanon may sell part of its gold reserves. UBS is positive on gold, with a target price of $6200/ounce [20][21]. Black - Series Futures - China's iron ore arrivals decreased, but global iron ore shipments increased. Vietnam plans to build a large - scale steel plant. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of Chinese pig - iron enterprises decreased, and inventory increased [23][25]. Agricultural Products Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased in February. Argentina's soybean moisture conditions improved, and the production forecast remains unchanged [27][28]. Financial Markets Financial - 143 companies have submitted IPO applications in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026. Deloitte predicts a better performance in the Hong Kong IPO market this year [30]. Industry - Payment transactions on Chinese New Year's Eve increased. The real - estate market may show more stabilization signals. China's AI governance system is maturing [31]. Overseas - The US may adjust tariff application methods and continue steel - aluminum tariffs. The Fed has about 75 basis - points to reach the neutral rate. India plans to invest $200 billion in AI. The Australian central bank may tighten policy. UK unemployment reached a new high [32][34][35]. International Stock Markets - US and European stock markets rose, while the Japanese market fell. High - end companies made significant stock - position adjustments. The UK may adjust accounting rules to attract Chinese companies. Australia simplifies corporate governance rules. Some companies announced major transactions or reported good earnings [36][38][41]. Commodities - Precious metals, oil, and most base metals futures fell due to factors such as progress in the Iran - US nuclear negotiation and reduced risk - aversion [43]. Bonds - US Treasury yields had mixed changes. Japanese bonds rose, and the 2029 fiscal - year bond issuance may increase [45]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [46]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's trade balance, UK's inflation and housing - price index, US's new - home construction, and other data [48]. - **Events**: New Zealand's central - bank rate decision, European Central Bank officials' speeches, and the Fed's release of meeting minutes [50]. - **Market Closures**: Chinese, South Korean, and Vietnamese stock markets are closed due to the Spring Festival [52].

同时西莫斯·布莱克利认为新任Xbox CEO阿莎·夏尔马的工作就是Xbox的"临终关怀"，给Xbox这个品牌一个体面。毕竟，谁会将大型电影制片 厂交给不喜欢电影地人，或者将一家唱片公司交给一个从未看过现场演出地人，这并不合理。 就在国内玩家享受春节假期时，微软Xbox高层大地震，作为领头人的菲尔·斯宾塞宣布退休，而原本被认为是其接班人的莎拉·邦德则直接辞 职。微软直接安排CoreAI首席执行官阿莎·夏尔马空降掌管Xbox。菲尔·斯宾塞的退休代表着Xbox的一个时代结束，而莎拉·邦德的辞职则不由 让人猜想微软高层是否对Xbox现状不满。对此，Xbox的联合创始人西莫斯·布莱克利(Seamus Blackley)称随着微软侧重于AI，Xbox正在被逐步 放弃，而阿莎·夏尔马就是为Xbox进行"临终关怀"的。 西莫斯·布莱克利表示随着阿莎·夏尔马空降Xbox，这很可能代表着微软游戏业务的未来将由生成式AI主导。微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉在转型AI 未来方面下了无数赌注，投入了巨额资金和信誉。相对的，像Xbox这样的非AI业务，正在逐步淘汰。虽然微软不会挑明这一点，但事实如 此。相对的，他赞扬了退休的菲尔·斯宾塞，其认 ...

IT之家 2 月 24 日消息，Xbox 主机联合创始人对其老东家近期的动荡局面发表了看法。在接受 GamesBeat 采访时，谢默斯 · 布莱克利（Seamus Blackley）并 不认为微软游戏新任首席执行官的任命是积极进展。他预计阿莎 · 夏尔马（Asha Sharma）将逐步拆解 Xbox 品牌，其任务是将该品牌转型为以人工智能为核 心的业务。 布莱克利提醒外界，微软及其首席执行官萨提亚 · 纳德拉已在人工智能领域投入巨资。他对 Xbox 未来的预测令人警醒： 在接替菲尔 · 斯宾塞后，夏尔马坚称，公司不会"用毫无灵魂的人工智能粗制滥造内容充斥我们的生态系统"。然而，微软预计人工智能工具将主导所有行 业。布莱克利援引纳德拉的言论认为，"人工智能会像吞噬一切事物那样，吞噬游戏行业"。 IT之家注意到，这位初代 Xbox 主机的核心缔造者指出，新任首席执行官的从业经验集中在人工智能领域，而非游戏行业。他以业内诸多知名失败案例为 例，认为急于入局的外来者往往没有准备好应对游戏行业的重重挑战。在布莱克利看来，这是一个融合了科技与创意的复杂产业。 批评者担忧，游戏工作室会用生成式人工智能工具取代开发者与美术人 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. markets experienced a mixed day, with a focus on the U.S. 2-year yield rising by four basis points following a Supreme Court ruling that raised questions about inflation and interest rates [2][6] - Gold prices increased as investors reacted to the risk-off sentiment in the market, while tech stocks, particularly in the software sector, saw declines of approximately 1.5% [2][4] Technology Sector - The software sector is facing significant pressure, with fears that AI tools may replace traditional software suites, leading to a 30% decline in an index of stocks including Salesforce and Adobe since their record highs [4][70] - Companies like IBM have seen substantial stock declines, with IBM down over 13% amid concerns about AI disruption [70][77] Payment and Delivery Services - PayPal's stock rose nearly 5% due to takeover interest, contrasting with the broader tech sector's struggles [3] - Delivery service companies such as DoorDash and Uber are facing challenges as hypothetical scenarios suggest that AI could disrupt their business models, contributing to stock declines [5][71] Tariff and Trade Implications - The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs has created uncertainty, particularly for major importers like Home Depot and TJX, as the market grapples with the implications of potential tariff changes [6][80] - The Attorney General of Nevada indicated that states are considering actions to recover tariffs collected, which could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars [22][23] Economic Indicators - The current economic environment shows signs of growth, with global growth rates around 2.5% and 3% including emerging markets, while inflation is gradually decreasing [10][17] - The bond market is experiencing a steepening yield curve, driven by long-term inflationary concerns and an excess supply of government debt [12][14] Trucking and Transportation Sector - The trucking industry is witnessing structural changes, with a significant reduction in driver availability leading to higher rates and potential long-term impacts on capacity [57][68] - Demand for transportation services is still down year-over-year, but there are positive indicators such as increased trade volumes and a projected recovery in the second half of the year [59][63]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down 821.91 (-1.66%) points today, closing at 48,804.06, while Dow Futures (YM=F) fell 857.00 (-1.73%) to 48,817.00. The main narrative driving the market was a sudden 15% blanket tariff announcement, which reignited trade war fears and global economic uncertainty. This policy shift, combined with hawkish Federal Reserve commentary suggesting a "coin flip" for future rate cuts, triggered a massive rotation out of cyclical and growth sectors into defensive assets.F ...

Core Insights - Microsoft appointed Asha Sharma as the new executive vice president and CEO of Microsoft Gaming, succeeding Phil Spencer, indicating a strategic shift in the company's gaming leadership [1][2] - Sharma's background in scaling digital platforms at Instacart and Meta suggests that Microsoft is focusing on software, services, and cloud infrastructure rather than traditional console sales [2][7] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is transitioning from a hardware-centric model to one that emphasizes software and digital services, driven by rising production costs and changing player expectations [4][5] - Modern blockbuster games can exceed $200 million in production costs, prompting companies to seek broader distribution across multiple platforms to maximize audience reach [5][6] Strategic Moves - Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard in 2023 necessitates a focus on high-margin revenue from games rather than solely relying on console sales, highlighting the importance of cross-platform availability [6][18] - The growing role of artificial intelligence in game development requires significant investment in cloud infrastructure, an area where Microsoft has been heavily investing through its Azure platform [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The competition in gaming is evolving, with platforms like Valve's Steam dominating PC game sales without relying on console hardware, which pressures traditional console strategies [16][17] - The future of the gaming industry may hinge on building resilient ecosystems that prioritize recurring digital revenue and access to advanced computing power rather than merely selling the most devices [18]

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to reinvent customer experiences [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, reshaping the global economy [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge that AI could unlock multi-trillion-dollar potential, supporting Musk's ambitious forecast [3] Industry Trends - The AI revolution is characterized by a powerful breakthrough that is redefining work, learning, and creativity, attracting significant interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - A smaller, under-owned company is identified as holding the key to the AI revolution, suggesting a potential investment opportunity [4][6] - Prominent billionaires, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a major technological advancement with the potential for significant social impact [8] Investment Opportunities - There is a strong belief that investors will regret not owning certain stocks related to AI advancements in the near future [9] - A detailed report on a groundbreaking AI company is available, highlighting its technology and growth potential [10] - Subscription to a premium newsletter offers access to exclusive insights and stock picks, emphasizing the urgency to invest before broader market awareness [12][14]