高盛最新研判：美国股市外机遇凸显！港股创 4 年新高！建议超配保险 / 材料，下调地产 / 银行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the effectiveness of focusing on areas outside the US stock market, particularly as the Chinese offshore market breaks through a year-long consolidation and reaches a four-year high, driven by easing geopolitical concerns and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies [1][2] - The MSCI China Index has risen 25% since the beginning of 2025, marking the second-best performance for the first seven months since 2010, alongside the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index reaching new highs for the year [1][2] Group 2 - Key driving factors include improved US-China trade relations, a significant increase in market risk appetite, and a strong influx of capital into the Hong Kong market, with record inflows from southbound funds [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy, which is a supply-side reform, is reshaping industry dynamics and has led to an upward adjustment of the MSCI China Index's 12-month target from 85 to 90 [2][3] Group 3 - There is a notable shift in investor interest towards China, with US investors showing increased attention and a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns compared to the previous two years [3][4] - Despite the increased interest, global actively managed funds' allocation to China remains near a cyclical low, indicating substantial future allocation potential [3][4] Group 4 - Sector adjustments have been made, with an overweight position in insurance and materials, while reducing exposure to real estate and banks [4][5] - The insurance sector is deemed attractive with a 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.0, benefiting from a recovering stock market [4][5] - The materials sector is also upgraded to overweight due to its sensitivity to the "anti-involution" policy, which is closely linked to industry profitability and supply reform [4][5] Group 5 - Real estate has been downgraded from overweight to market weight, reflecting a shift in industry cycles and policy focus from demand stimulation to supply-side reform [5][6] - The banking sector has been adjusted to market weight, with a 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.6, indicating limited short-term elasticity [5][6] Group 6 - The analysis highlights a core contradiction in global asset allocation, where the strong performance of the US stock market poses a challenge for investors considering China, despite the independent logic of China's market driven by "anti-involution" policies and capital inflows [10][11] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on policy-sensitive sectors like insurance and materials, as well as undervalued consumer sectors, while avoiding high-involution and high-valuation pressure industries [12][13] Group 7 - The overall strategy for global asset allocation in the second half of 2025 should focus on differentiated logic, emphasizing the resilience of US corporate earnings and structural opportunities driven by AI, while anchoring on policy reforms and capital inflows in the Chinese offshore market [13]