暑运需求持续释放 “反内卷”下民航效益能否提升？

Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation passenger volume in China continues to rise due to the release of summer travel demand and the dissipation of typhoon impacts, with expectations for improved industry efficiency despite a decline in average ticket prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Passenger Volume and Flight Operations - From July 21 to 27, 2023, the national civil aviation executed 115,000 passenger flights, averaging 16,400 flights per day, representing a 2% increase from the previous week and a 5% increase year-on-year compared to 2024 [2]. - The weekly passenger volume reached 16.53 million, with an average of 2.36 million passengers per day, reflecting a 3% week-on-week increase and a 5% year-on-year increase compared to 2024 [2]. - As of July 27, 2023, the total number of passenger flights at national airports reached 5.97 million, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with total passenger throughput at 862.09 million, up 4.8% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Ticket Pricing and Revenue - The average ticket price for domestic routes from July 21 to 27, 2023, was 956.5 yuan, a 3% decrease week-on-week and an 11% decrease year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - The average revenue per seat kilometer for domestic routes was 0.540 yuan, down 2% week-on-week and 12% year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite the decline in average ticket prices, there is an expectation for an increase in average ticket prices during the 2025 summer travel season, with a projected average price of 1,079 yuan, a 3.5% increase compared to the 2024 summer season [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The civil aviation industry anticipates that the growth rate of passenger throughput during the 2025 summer travel season will be 4.9%, with domestic passenger throughput expected to reach 272 million, a 4.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - The number of domestic passenger flights is projected to increase by 1.6% to 1.81 million, while international and regional flights are expected to grow by 11.5% to 147,000 flights [3][4]. - The industry expects that the supply growth will be lower than demand growth, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand relationship and a potential increase in average ticket prices [3][7].