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How Should You Play Coinbase Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
CoinbaseCoinbase(US:COIN) ZACKSยท2025-07-29 18:26

Core Insights - Coinbase Global (COIN) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with a consensus revenue estimate of $1.5 billion, reflecting a 4.3% year-over-year increase [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings is 83 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 22.4% [2] Financial Performance - COIN has a history of beating earnings estimates, achieving this in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 32.71% [3] - The Earnings ESP for Coinbase is +12.05%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at 93 cents, higher than the consensus estimate [5] Revenue Drivers - Increased trading volume due to higher volatility is expected to benefit COIN's second-quarter performance, with trading volume estimated at 235 million, a 4% increase year-over-year [6] - Transaction revenues are projected to rise 23% year-over-year, estimated at $1.325 billion [9] - Subscription and services revenues are expected to be between $600 million and $680 million, driven by stablecoin income growth [10] Cost Management - COIN anticipates sales and marketing expenses to range from $215 million to $315 million, influenced by performance marketing variability [11] - Technology and development expenses are projected to be between $700 million and $750 million, a decline from the previous quarter [12] Market Positioning - Coinbase is positioned to benefit from increased crypto asset volatility and rising prices, with a strategic shift towards subscription and service-based income enhancing revenue stability [17][18] - The company is focusing on operational efficiency and maintaining a disciplined cost structure, with a relatively strong debt position [19] Regulatory Environment - The supportive regulatory landscape under the Trump administration is expected to benefit Coinbase, enhancing its market share in both retail and institutional segments [20]