进口大降 美国商品贸易逆差超预期收窄 华尔街上调Q2 GDP预期

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected in June, driven by a decline in imports, indicating a decrease in the previous phenomenon of stockpiling imports due to tariff expectations [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods decreased by 10.8% in June, falling to $86 billion, which was below the predictions of all economists surveyed [1] - U.S. imports fell by 4.2% to $264.2 billion in June, with consumer goods imports reaching their lowest level since September 2020, and industrial goods imports at their lowest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The latest trade data has led some economists to raise their GDP forecasts for the U.S. in the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increasing its estimate to 2.9%, attributing over 4 percentage points of contribution from net exports [1] - Retail inventories rose by 0.3% in June, the largest increase since September of the previous year, primarily due to a surge in auto dealer inventories [2] - U.S. manufacturers continue to face uncertainty due to the changing tariff policies under Trump, with potential risks of significant tax increases if agreements are not reached before the deadline [2]