美国50%铜进口关税本周末开征 智利正积极争取豁免

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on copper imports, creating significant uncertainty in the market and potentially altering global metal trade dynamics, especially with Chile seeking exemptions and the emergence of a "metal alliance" between the U.S. and Europe [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Prices - Following the announcement of the copper tariffs, copper prices surged by 13% to $5.6855 per pound, reaching a historical high not seen since 1968 [1]. - As of now, COMEX copper contracts are priced at approximately $5.63 per pound, while LME three-month copper prices are significantly lower at $4.44 per pound, indicating a widening arbitrage opportunity [2]. - If no exemptions are granted and tariffs are fully implemented, StoneX predicts that the arbitrage gap will further increase, maintaining high U.S. copper prices in the medium term [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with a dependency rate of 44%, meaning any supply disruptions could lead to further price increases [2]. - There has been a notable increase in U.S. copper imports, which surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, leading to a significant rise in inventory levels [2]. - The global copper supply remains tight, but inventory distribution is highly uneven, which may lead to price pressures as the effects of "front-loading" imports are expected to unwind by the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - The European Union is also seeking exemptions from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, with discussions aimed at establishing a "metal alliance" that would create a protective economic framework [3]. - Under the proposed "metal alliance," EU steel and aluminum exports may receive certain duty-free quotas, while copper tariffs are still under evaluation, with expectations that they will not exceed 15% [3]. - Despite potential tariff impacts, the long-term outlook for copper remains bullish due to increasing demand driven by AI data center expansions and global electrification efforts [3].