Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-29 23:20Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy policy is expected to significantly boost demand in the dairy industry, particularly for infant formula, despite a projected decline in birth rates in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Details - The national childcare subsidy plan was officially announced on July 28, with subsidies starting from January 1, 2025, for children under three years old, amounting to 3,600 yuan per child per year [2]. - The funding for the subsidies will come from a new transfer payment project established by the central government, with local governments responsible for any additional funding [2]. - The policy emphasizes fairness, efficiency in distribution, and tax exemption for the subsidies, reflecting the government's commitment to addressing population issues [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The estimated annual distribution of childcare subsidies is around 100 billion yuan, which is substantial and expected to have a multiplier effect on consumption [3]. - The total subsidy amount is significant compared to the projected sales revenue of the dairy industry, which is estimated at 510.5 billion yuan for 2024 [3]. - The policy may lead to increased consumer spending in various sectors, including dairy products, maternal care, and early education, with potential for further subsidy increases in the future [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The national childcare subsidy is anticipated to enhance the consumption of dairy products, particularly infant formula, thereby improving the overall market conditions for the dairy sector [4]. - The government's focus on population-related policies, including free preschool education, is expected to help mitigate the declining birth rate and boost market confidence [4].