市场备战“金九银十”，甲醇期价能否借势反弹

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed as market sentiment cooled down [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell sharply, with a nearly 4% drop on July 28 and a further decline of 0.33% recently [1]. - Analysts indicate that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic bullish sentiment [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic production remains high, and there is an expectation of increased imports, particularly from Iran, which may reach 381,700 tons by the end of July [2]. - The demand side is challenged by traditional downstream sectors facing losses, with methanol production rates for formaldehyde at only 27.96% and low operating rates for MTO facilities [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term weakness and mid-term rebound, influenced by supply-demand structure, inventory changes, and external macro variables [3]. - Analysts suggest monitoring the pace of imports and the recovery of downstream ethylene facilities as key indicators for future price movements [3]. - The current situation shows that over 60% of downstream enterprises are in a loss-making state, which could impact future demand [4].