Spotify: 涨价失灵，高估值还撑得住吗？

Core Viewpoint - Spotify's Q2 2025 earnings report fell short of expectations, with both external factors like currency fluctuations and internal growth guidance being disappointing [1] Revenue Performance - Q2 revenue growth was only 10%, below guidance and market expectations, with a 5 percentage point negative impact from foreign exchange; excluding this, the organic growth rate was 15%, surpassing the original guidance of 14.2% [2] - The revenue guidance for Q3 appears weak, also impacted by a 5 percentage point foreign exchange headwind, with an expected growth rate of 10%, which is still below the market's 12% expectation [2] User Metrics - The key reason for the revenue shortfall was a low ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User), particularly from new market users; promotional activities and third-party payment channel promotions may have temporarily affected the average transaction value [2] - Despite the revenue challenges, the core competitive advantage in user growth remains intact, with management focusing on user penetration as the primary goal [2] Gross Margin Analysis - Q2 gross margin decreased to 31.5%, influenced by audio content investments and foreign exchange headwinds; while this aligns with company guidance, the positive impact of price increases on gross margin seems to have plateaued [3] - The low gross margin is a significant barrier to Spotify's profitability, with efforts to optimize costs facing temporary constraints due to recent agreements with major labels [3] Operating Expenses - All three operating expense categories increased year-over-year in Q2, attributed to the end of efficiency improvements and factors like new version releases and promotional activities [3] - Operating profit for Q2 was €410 million, a 53% year-over-year increase, but significantly slowed compared to the previous quarter, with a profit margin of 9.7% [3] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Despite poor earnings, cash flow increased due to seasonal mismatches, with Q2 free cash flow netting €700 million, a 43% year-over-year increase, representing 17% of total revenue [4] - As of the end of Q2, the company had accumulated nearly €8.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, with management indicating potential shareholder returns from excess cash after investments [5] Performance Overview - Q2 total revenues were €3.807 billion, a year-over-year growth of 10.1%, missing market consensus by 1.8% [7] - Gross profit for Q2 was €1.112 billion, with a gross profit margin of 31.5%, matching market expectations [7] - Operating income was €266 million, with an operating profit margin of 7.0%, also missing expectations [7] Market Position and Valuation - Spotify's pricing strategy faces challenges, as its standard single plan is priced higher than competitors like Amazon Music and Apple Music, which may limit future price increases [9] - The company's high valuation, with a P/E ratio of 57x, reflects optimistic growth expectations, but recent earnings reports may lead to stricter performance evaluations [8][10]