“新美联储通讯社”：2张反对票，3个阵营，关键是“鲍威尔在发布会是否暗示9月降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with three distinct factions emerging among officials [1][2][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a minority eager for immediate rate cuts, a cautious middle group, and a more conservative faction advocating for a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The cautious middle group, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the need for more data to confirm the impact of tariffs on inflation before acting [2]. - The immediate rate cut advocates, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, argue that delaying action could worsen the labor market [2]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts [3][4]. - Trump's recent visit to the Fed's renovation site is seen as part of a broader effort to undermine Fed Chair Jerome Powell's position [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Signals - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting the economy can withstand current interest rates [4]. - Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan likens the Fed's decision-making process to a "super tanker," indicating that premature actions could have long-lasting repercussions [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - The market anticipates that while no immediate policy changes will occur, the Fed may signal a future shift in policy direction [5][6]. - Investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference for hints regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September [6].