50城库存再降7%，典型城市哪些房源去化最难？

Core Insights - The real estate industry has officially entered a new phase of "de-inventory" since the "430" Politburo meeting last year, which proposed a comprehensive study on digesting existing housing stock [1] - Various policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges, commodity housing storage, and "housing vouchers" have been implemented, alongside controlled new housing supply, leading to a continued decline in housing inventory [1] Inventory Trends - As of June 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 key cities decreased by 7% year-on-year, with over 70% of these cities experiencing a decline in inventory size [2][3] - Chengdu saw the largest decline in narrow inventory, with a 45% year-on-year drop, while cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Lanzhou also reported declines exceeding 20% [2][3] - However, cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing still face de-inventory cycles exceeding 18 months, indicating ongoing pressure [2][4] Inventory and De-inventory Cycle - By mid-2025, the narrow inventory scale in key cities was 309 million square meters, with a de-inventory cycle of 21.82 months, both showing declines of over 5% [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanchang, and Shanghai have de-inventory cycles below 18 months, with improvements compared to the previous year [4] Area Segment Analysis - The de-inventory difficulty varies by area segment, with cities like Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing showing high de-inventory cycles for both small (<80 sqm) and large (>180 sqm) units, while the main inventory is concentrated in the 100-140 sqm range [6][8] - In Guangzhou, the inventory for 100-120 sqm units constitutes over 20% of total inventory, while larger units (160 sqm and above) have seen an increase in inventory pressure [6][8] Regional Inventory Dynamics - Peripheral areas in cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are experiencing significant inventory growth, with Guangzhou's outer districts showing a 22.26% share of total inventory as of June 2025 [7][14] - Core districts in cities like Wuhan and Nanjing have a lower inventory share, but there is a rising trend in inventory proportion in these areas [8] - The overall inventory pressure is notably differentiated across various cities and regions, with the potential for further declines in inventory as the market experiences a phase of increased supply [14]