债市回调整固，公司债ETF（511030）回撤可控、净值稳定、流动性好备受关注

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced adjustments last week, with spreads widening, particularly in the 1-3 year segment, which returned to historical levels below 3%, indicating potential for further adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Adjustments - The ordinary commercial bond spreads have also widened, with the 1-5 year segment within the 20% historical percentile [1] - The secondary and perpetual credit spreads have shown some recovery, with the 3-year segment returning to approximately 15% of its historical percentile, highlighting improved value [1] Group 2: Yield and Spread Data - As of July 25, 2025, the yield data for various credit ratings and maturities shows the following: - National Development Bonds yield ranges from 1.46% (0.5Y) to 1.70% (5Y) with historical percentiles of 4.0% to 6.2% [2] - AAA-rated bonds yield ranges from 1.67% (0.5Y) to 1.88% (3Y) with historical percentiles of 1.8% to 4.4% [2] - AA-rated bonds yield ranges from 1.75% (0.5Y) to 2.20% (5Y) with historical percentiles of 0.7% to 3.3% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The recent bond market pullback is attributed to inflation logic following previous stock market gains and rapid commodity price increases, indicating a short-term adjustment [4] - The June profits of large industrial enterprises have declined for two consecutive months, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting limited upward space for the stock market and downward space for the bond market [4] - Key indicators to monitor include the central bank's support for liquidity and the Shanghai Composite Index's performance above 3600, which would reduce negative impacts on the bond market [4] Group 4: Credit Market Insights - The credit market has shown slow valuation adjustments, indicating a resilient nature, but the credit spreads remain low, suggesting a need to monitor opportunities in the technology innovation bond ETF market [4]