特朗普突改对俄制裁时间表，“油价炸弹”滴答作响！

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's unexpected shortening of the deadline for imposing the most severe oil export sanctions on Russia may compel investors to start pricing in this significant tail risk [1][2] Group 1: Sanctions and Market Impact - Trump has given Moscow 10 to 12 days to reach a peace agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, or else he will impose a secondary tariff of 100% on Russian oil buyers, significantly reducing the previous 50-day deadline set on July 14 [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in June, Russia's daily crude oil exports were 4.68 million barrels (approximately 4.5% of global demand), and refined product exports were 2.5 million barrels, indicating potential disruptions to global oil supply [1] - The potential implementation of secondary tariffs could lead to a spike in oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S., despite Trump's previous mixed signals regarding his threats [2][3] Group 2: Global Oil Supply Dynamics - The effectiveness of the secondary tariff as a financial weapon remains uncertain, but India, the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil in June at 1.5 million barrels per day, may reconsider its trade relations with Moscow due to ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, the lowest since 2009, while supply is expected to increase significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day to 105.1 million barrels per day this year [5] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, leading to a decrease in remaining capacity, yet Saudi Arabia still has 2.3 million barrels per day of capacity that can be brought online within 90 days [5] Group 3: Russian Response and Market Reactions - Any sanctions that limit Russia's oil revenue, which constitutes 30% to 50% of the federal budget, may provoke a strong response from President Putin [5] - Recent actions by Russia, such as temporarily banning foreign tankers from loading crude oil at major Black Sea ports, indicate Moscow's willingness to retaliate against Western measures [6] - Trump's latest threat may be seen as bluster, but it has nonetheless shortened the fuse on a potential crisis in the oil market [7]