看空情绪浓厚！政治风险加剧，日元恐进一步下滑至……

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has performed the worst among major currencies in the past three months, facing further decline due to rising political risks in Japan [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Strategists are pessimistic about the yen, anticipating that the outcome of the Japanese elections will lead to increased government spending, while the impact of U.S. tariffs may slow down interest rate cuts [1] - The Liberal Democratic Party's loss in the July 20 elections is a key factor affecting the yen, with analysts warning that Prime Minister Kishida may resort to populist fiscal spending to consolidate his weakened ruling coalition [1] - The demand for bullish dollar/yen options reflects market expectations that the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda will not signal interest rate hikes soon, as short-term growth and inflation risks are skewed to the downside [1][2] Group 2: Currency Performance and Positioning - The yen has depreciated approximately 6% since reaching a seven-month high in April, currently trading around 148.25 against the dollar [2] - Market participants betting on yen depreciation expect Kishida to yield to opposition-driven tax cuts to boost support for the ruling coalition [2] - Barclays strategists suggest that regardless of the political outcome, fiscal policy is likely to become more expansionary, potentially pushing the dollar/yen pair above the 150 level [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policy and Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan is set to announce its policy decision, which will be a key factor influencing the yen's short-term trajectory, with investors closely watching Governor Ueda's comments for indications of future rate hikes [3] - Overnight index swaps currently price in a 74% probability of a rate hike this year, up from 59% prior to the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement [3] - Analysts believe the Bank of Japan will need time to assess the actual impact of the tariffs, suggesting that the yen may depreciate above 150 this year [4]