Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-30 06:02Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in futures markets, particularly in coal and steel, has led to a strong performance in related stocks, indicating a potential recovery in the cyclical sectors driven by policy support and improving demand conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Futures Market Movements - On July 30, coal futures rose nearly 7%, with other commodities like coke and glass also seeing significant increases of around 6% [1]. - The strong performance in the futures market translated into the stock market, with cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, and chemicals experiencing a robust rally [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The steel sector saw an average increase of over 3% in early trading, with notable performers including Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit, and Ba Yi Steel and Baosteel rising by over 5% and 4%, respectively [1][2]. - The coal sector also performed well, with Antai Group hitting the daily limit and Shaanxi Black Cat and Huaibei Mining both increasing by over 2% [4]. Group 3: Chemical Sector Developments - The basic chemical sector rose by 1.05%, with companies like Wankai New Materials and Luban Chemical hitting the daily limit, while others like Jiu Ri New Materials and Songjing Co. saw increases of over 5% [5][6]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Context - The current cyclical rally began in late June, driven by signals of policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is set to introduce measures to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel and petrochemicals [5][7]. - Recent regulatory changes, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, aim to curb disorderly competition in industries like steel and chemicals, promoting profit recovery [5][7]. Group 5: Industry Profitability - The gross profit per ton of steel has rebounded from 86 yuan in Q2 to 213 yuan for rebar, reflecting the positive impact of policy measures [7]. - In the coal sector, the National Energy Administration has initiated production checks to control overproduction, while coal imports have dropped over 30% year-on-year, tightening supply expectations [7].