“减肥神药”神话破灭，诺和诺德是如何跌落王座的？

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk, once a leader in the GLP-1 market with its weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, has faced a dramatic decline in stock price and market confidence due to a significant profit warning and increased competition from Eli Lilly [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - On July 29, Novo Nordisk issued a profit warning, projecting a decline in both revenue and profit for 2025, leading to a 24% drop in stock price and a market cap loss of over €60 billion [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs revised the company's 2025 sales growth forecast from 13%-21% to 8%-14%, and operating profit expectations from 16%-24% to 10%-16%, with additional negative impacts from currency fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Novo Nordisk's dominance in the weight loss drug market has been challenged, with Eli Lilly's Mounjaro surpassing Ozempic in prescription volume in the U.S. [18]. - The company has lost its competitive edge due to increased market competition, slow progress in insurance coverage, and rising usage of compounded GLP-1 alternatives [8][18]. Group 3: Strategic Missteps - Three major strategic errors have hindered Novo Nordisk's performance: 1. Underestimating demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, leading to supply shortages [10]. 2. Delayed commercialization compared to Eli Lilly, which launched its direct sales platform earlier [11]. 3. A broad expansion strategy that diluted focus on the U.S. market, where Eli Lilly concentrated its resources [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Leadership Changes - Novo Nordisk appointed Mike Doustdar as the new CEO, with a focus on addressing market challenges and restoring investor confidence [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating on Novo Nordisk, citing its strong brand influence, manufacturing capabilities, and research pipeline in the obesity and diabetes sectors [16].