Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-30 06:52Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time during the July meeting [1] - Barclays anticipates at least one dissenting vote in the upcoming decision, with a possibility of two dissenting votes, indicating growing internal divisions within the FOMC [1] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman have expressed support for rate cuts, citing inflation nearing the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 2 - The June meeting minutes reveal that some officials still prefer to keep rates unchanged for the year, with Barclays predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Deutsche Bank shares a similar outlook, forecasting two additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS believes that the FOMC's collective decision-making will remain stable despite potential changes in leadership, although upcoming departures may tilt the voting structure towards a dovish stance [2] Group 3 - Market analysts note that tariff policies are increasing prices for trade-sensitive goods, contributing to inflationary pressures [2] - UBS is optimistic about high-rated bonds and gold allocations, projecting a year-end target price of $3,500 per ounce for gold [2] - The dollar is expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, with a year-end target of 1.21 for the euro against the dollar [2]