30年国债飙涨0.6%，30年国债ETF博时(511130)午盘飘红，成交放量突破42亿元

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by more than 2% [1] - Over 4,100 stocks declined, while more than 1,100 stocks rose [1] Bond Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures saw an intraday increase of 0.6%, currently reported at 118.6 points. The 10-year bond rose by 0.18% to 108.335 points, the 5-year bond increased by 0.1% to 105.66 points, and the 2-year bond rose by 0.05% to 102.354 points [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi, 511130) experienced a rapid surge, increasing by 32 basis points with a trading volume exceeding 3.8 billion yuan and a turnover rate of over 25% [1] Interest Rate Trends - According to Minsheng Securities, the bond market has shown significant adjustments recently, with the 10-year government bond yield rising over 10 basis points to approximately 1.75% [1] - Historical patterns indicate that similar rapid increases in yields often occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the increase in bond yields is primarily attributed to unexpected continuous rises in commodity prices, leading to emotional shocks in the market [1] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the short-term upward space for bond yields will be limited. If inflation expectations continue to rise, it may put pressure on bonds. Given the substantial government bond issuance in the third quarter, the central bank may consider early debt purchases, which could restrict significant yield increases [2] - In August, the expected range for the 10-year government bond yield is projected to be between 1.65% and 1.80%. Investors are advised to focus on downside risks during trading opportunities [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi, 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2]