美国二季度GDP反弹存疑!经济学家：贸易政策扰动致数据失真

Group 1 - The upcoming GDP data may show a rebound, but trade policy disruptions and structural weaknesses are masking true growth momentum [1] - A survey indicates that after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, the annualized GDP growth for April to June could reach 2.4%, with some institutions raising expectations to 3.3% due to revised trade and inventory data [1] - The contribution of trade to GDP saw a record decline of 4.61 percentage points in Q1, and while some reversal is expected in Q2, low inventory levels due to decreased import flows are dampening the positive effects of trade growth on GDP [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, is expected to show only a modest recovery after stagnation in Q1, while business investment is likely to remain weak [2] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over ten years, with only a 0.5% average annual increase in real GDP, raising questions about the effectiveness of the policy [2] - The labor market is a critical observation point, with expectations that as long as layoffs do not significantly increase, the economy may maintain growth in the second half of the year, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of final sales to domestic private buyers is expected to be lower than Q1's 1.9%, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - Balancing trade protection with economic growth presents a challenge for policymakers and businesses alike [3]