Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-30 07:11Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992), with the current stock price corresponding to 33/26 times adjusted P/E for 2025/2026, and a target price of 330 HKD, indicating a 35% upside potential [1] Group 1: Company Evolution - Over the past fifteen years, Pop Mart has evolved from its inception to a diversified entity and now aims for global presence, establishing an IP matrix with the top IP, THE MONSTERS, expected to generate over 3 billion CNY in revenue by 2024, alongside four IPs generating over 1 billion CNY and thirteen IPs generating over 100 million CNY [2] - The revenue contribution from various product categories has shifted, with figurines now accounting for 53%, plush toys at 22%, and MEGA and derivative products contributing 13% and 12% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue has surpassed 5 billion CNY, with Southeast Asia, East Asia, and regions like Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, North America, and Europe contributing 47%, 27%, 14%, and 11% respectively [2] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive operational system, focusing on IP discovery through systematic mechanisms like exhibitions and internal incubation, enhancing the success rate [3] - IP operation is product-driven, leveraging IP characteristics to extend categories and styles, with recent new product launches showing increased speed and higher success rates, validating the platform advantage [3] - A direct sales system strengthens control over inventory and pricing, allowing the company to respond to terminal demand and inform product development [3] - A centralized supplier strategy aids in quality control, while a flexible supply chain and rapid reorder capabilities balance customer experience with inventory efficiency [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities, with North America entering a rapid growth phase, Europe preparing for expansion, and Southeast Asia expected to maintain strong performance, indicating potential for "multiple Pop Marts" [4] - Compared to world-class IPs like Hello Kitty, LABUBU has not yet reached its ceiling and has the potential to become a global super IP, supported by a platform-based IP operation system [4] - Diverse business lines such as figurines and plush toys are still in the growth phase, while categories like building blocks, accessories, theme parks, and content ecosystems are expected to unlock further business potential for the group [4]