7月美联储不降息已被定价？领峰贵金属直击现货黄金巨震的5大线索

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 31 is critical for determining the future direction of gold prices, with potential volatility expected based on Jerome Powell's statements regarding interest rates and inflation [1][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating that this has likely already been priced in [3]. - The key information will depend on whether there are hints of a rate cut in September within the meeting's statement, which could lead to a significant drop in the dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The upcoming PCE data, expected to show a slight increase to 2.5%, will be crucial; if the data comes in below expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may increase, benefiting gold bulls [4]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Initial jobless claims are declining, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, indicating resilient employment data, which adds uncertainty to the prospects of a rate cut this year [5]. Group 4: Quantitative Tightening (QT) - The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce the monthly cap on QT from $47.5 billion to $30 billion, which is akin to easing monetary policy and could provide additional support for gold prices [6][7]. Group 5: Powell's Statements Impact - Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference will be pivotal; if he suggests that action does not need to wait for inflation to return to 2%, gold could surge past the $3,360-$3,380 range. Conversely, if he emphasizes the need for further observation, gold prices may drop below $3,300 [9].