PVC上行阻力较大

Core Viewpoint - PVC market is experiencing a rebound due to commodity sentiment but faces significant downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and supply pressures [1][5][7] Supply Pressure - In 2025, PVC will face the largest capacity expansion pressure in a decade, with plans to launch 9 new production units totaling nearly 2.5 million tons, primarily between June and August [2] - PVC operating rates are expected to rebound as maintenance season ends, with a significant increase in operating rates anticipated due to reduced planned maintenance [2] Demand Weakness - The demand for PVC is expected to remain weak, particularly due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, which is a major consumer of PVC [5] - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment in China was 46,658 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20% and completed area down 14.8% [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market is saturated, making exports a critical outlet, with over 2.6 million tons expected to be exported in 2024, half of which will go to India [6] - However, the implementation of India's BIS certification and increasing global trade tensions may further complicate export opportunities, with a significant drop in exports observed in June [6] Summary - The current fundamentals for PVC are weak, with potential for further downward pressure. However, if policies such as production limits are introduced, there may be a gradual reversal of the current weak pricing trend [7]