特朗普对俄“10天倒计时”开启，港A石油股强势“点火”上扬

Market Performance - On July 30, oil stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced a strong rally, with notable gains in companies such as Qianeng Hengxin, Keli Co., and Tongyuan Petroleum [1][2] - Qianeng Hengxin rose nearly 12%, while Keli Co. and Tongyuan Petroleum saw increases of 9.59% and 7.22%, respectively [2] Oil Price Drivers - The surge in oil stocks was driven by two main factors: concerns over supply due to the U.S. government's decision to shorten the sanctions timeline against Russia, and positive market expectations from the EU-U.S. trade agreement [4][6] - Trump's announcement indicated that if Russia does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 10 days, severe tariffs could be imposed on Russian oil imports [4][5] Trade Agreements Impact - The recent EU-U.S. trade agreement requires the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy over the coming years, significantly increasing demand for U.S. energy and reducing reliance on Russian products [7] - This agreement is expected to bolster U.S. producers and apply greater pressure on Russia in negotiations [7] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite the current price surge, the overall supply-demand balance remains tilted towards oversupply, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in September [8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply growth upwards, indicating that supply increases will outpace demand growth in the coming years [8] Future Price Projections - Short-term pressures on oil prices are anticipated from tariff policies and OPEC+ production increases, but geopolitical risks and OPEC+ intervention capabilities may support price stability [9] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties, despite underlying support for oil prices [9]