张津镭：美决议倒计时！鲍威尔讲话成黄金破局关键

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with market sentiment fluctuating due to various economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced minor fluctuations, closing at $3326, indicating a small upward movement despite overall market volatility [1]. - The market is reacting to multiple key factors, including the imminent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and global risk sentiment [1]. - The potential for a rare dissenting vote at the Federal Reserve meeting highlights ongoing tensions between the White House and the central bank, adding uncertainty to market expectations [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell may hint at the possibility of a rate cut in September, but will likely emphasize the need for more employment and inflation data [2]. - The focus of the meeting will be on capturing potential signals for a September rate cut rather than the outcome of the current meeting [2]. - If the meeting conveys a dovish signal, it could boost gold prices above recent resistance levels, such as $3350 [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold has fallen below the daily moving average, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a stronger expectation of no rate cut [2]. - The narrow trading range around the moving average suggests significant potential for movement based on upcoming fundamental events [2]. - If negative news arises, gold could face stronger downward pressure, potentially dropping to the lower range of $3290-$3285, or even lower to $3250-$3210 [2]. Group 4: Trading Recommendations - The company suggests a short position on gold at the $3335-$3340 range, with a stop loss at $3350 and a target of $3305-$3300 [3]. Group 5: Key Economic Data - Important economic data to watch includes U.S. ADP employment numbers, Q2 GDP growth rate, personal consumption expenditures, core PCE price index, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [4].