Ultima Markets聚焦央行：美联储与加拿大央行决议即将公布

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely watching the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) amid easing global trade tensions and changing macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%–4.50% during the upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive hold [2] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts due to a softening job market and temporary inflation concerns, while others prefer a cautious approach [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may initiate rate cuts as early as September or December, with a forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by year-end [3][6] Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - President Trump has exerted political pressure on the Fed, criticizing Chairman Powell and threatening to remove him, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that political interference could undermine the credibility of the Fed's monetary policy [4] Group 3: Bank of Canada Outlook - The BoC is also expected to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive hold, following a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points since mid-2024 [7] - The BoC's future policy will depend on economic data, with expectations of one to two additional rate cuts in 2025 if U.S. tariffs continue to pressure the Canadian economy [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The communication from both central banks post-meeting will be crucial, particularly regarding their views on inflation, the job market, and trade spillover effects [8] - The market is also focused on upcoming inflation and employment data from both countries, which will provide further direction for monetary policy [8]