金价预测：黄金/美元在美国国内生产总值（GDP）和美联储的影响下仍然停留在一个熟悉的区间

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating within a range of $3350 to $3300 ahead of key U.S. data and Federal Reserve policy announcements, with a downward trend being observed [2][4]. Market Analysis - The technical outlook for gold prices indicates a downward resistance path, with prices hovering below the critical resistance level of $3345 as traders remain cautious before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement [3][4]. - Following a rebound from a three-week low of $3302, gold prices are under pressure as traders hesitate to establish new positions, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on the U.S. Q1 GDP [4][5]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.4% in Q2, a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are projected at 2.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Disappointing U.S. economic data could reignite market expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, starting in September, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [5]. - Conversely, stronger-than-expected U.S. data may counter these expectations, strengthening the dollar and negatively impacting gold prices [6]. - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% in July, as policymakers assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth [7]. Market Sentiment - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September [8]. - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts could strengthen dovish expectations, supporting non-yielding gold prices and potentially raising questions about the Fed's independence, which may negatively affect the dollar [9]. Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions, with prices appearing weak below the critical resistance level of $3345 [12][13]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midpoint, currently near 47, indicating bearish potential [14]. - If selling pressure re-emerges, gold prices may retest the three-week low of $3302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3283 [15]. - The last line of defense for gold buyers is at the June 30 low of $3248, while reclaiming the $3345 level is crucial for initiating a meaningful rebound, targeting the next resistance at $3380 and aiming for $3400 [16][17].