Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-30 08:48Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports strong and sustained demand for artificial intelligence (AI), indicating accelerated expansion across the entire industry chain from cloud service providers' capital expenditures to chip manufacturers' capacity planning [1][2] - The report highlights Google's increased capital expenditure budget for 2025, raised from $75 billion to $85 billion, primarily for server investments and data center construction, with a significant increase in monthly token processing volume from 480 trillion in May to 980 trillion [2][8] - The semiconductor industry in the US and Greater China is rated as "attractive" due to resilient AI demand supporting industry growth [2] Group 2 - The H20 chip shipments are expected to resume, with a total of 1 million units anticipated from Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain, while the production plan for the B40 chip remains unchanged at 200,000 units for 2025 [5] - AMD's MI308 chip orders for the Chinese market are expected to normalize, with the forecast for TSMC's CoWoS packaging usage in 2025 increased from 50,000 to 60,000 units [5] Group 3 - TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity is projected to drive 40%-50% growth in the global cloud AI chip industry by 2026, with NVIDIA's orders expected to reach 510,000 units, a 31% increase year-over-year [6][7] - Other companies are also ramping up their capacity, with Alchip's CoWoS order forecast increased from 40,000 to 50,000 units due to rapid deployment of AWS Trainium3 [6] Group 4 - The AI chip-related wafer revenue is expected to reach $14.5 billion by 2025, with high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand nearly doubling compared to 2024, and NVIDIA remains the largest consumer [8][10] - The operational cash flow of the four major cloud giants (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) is projected to reach $550 billion by 2025, providing solid support for ongoing AI data center investments [8] Group 5 - The expansion of the AI supply chain is evident not only in chips and packaging but also in GPU and ASIC rental prices and corporate revenue structures, with NVIDIA and AMD's data center semiconductor revenues continuing to grow [10] - TSMC's AI-related revenue is expected to account for 25% of its total revenue by 2025, significantly up from approximately 15% in 2024 [10]