Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD has declined to a five-week low, challenging the support level at 1.1500 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar maintains its rebound ahead of the FOMC event, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - Optimism surrounding a US-EU framework agreement has supported the dollar's rise, with the agreement involving a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, while key industries are exempt from tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with some policymakers favoring preventive rate cuts while others prefer to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of July 22, speculators have reduced their net long positions in euros to approximately 125.5K contracts, the lowest level in two weeks, while institutional hedgers have cut their short positions to about 177.7K contracts [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD must break above the 2025 high of 1.1830 to target the peak of 1.1909 from September 2021, potentially challenging the significant 1.2000 level [7] - Short-term support levels are identified at 1.1518, followed by the June 19 low of 1.1445 and the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1344 [8] Group 4: Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, indicating further downside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests no clear trend has formed [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and divergent signals from central banks indicate that recent gains are hard-won, with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or signs of trade war de-escalation needed to reverse the Euro/USD trend in the short term [12]
欧元/美元价格预测：下一个下行目标是1.1450
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-30 08:54