Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-30 09:09Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually reach a bottom, with supply-side adjustments beginning to emerge, and potential government policies could accelerate this process [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons last week, a decrease of 19,800 tons week-on-week; however, total inventory remains at a near historical low of 13.365 million tons, down 11,600 tons [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates increased by 3.21 percentage points to 62.18% [2] - The demand from the real estate sector is declining, but the negative impact on overall demand is expected to weaken gradually, with stable growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors [4] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar increased to 330.1 CNY, up 131.5 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit rose to 244.1 CNY, an increase of 113.5 CNY [3] - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies rose to 63.64%, an increase of 3.47% week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually stabilize in demand, with a projected increase in supply-side adjustments if government policies are implemented [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, including steel [4]