空头大军压境！期权交易员正为日元进一步暴跌布局

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has underperformed against major currencies over the past three months, facing further downside risks due to increasing political uncertainties and potential government spending increases following election outcomes [1] Group 1: Currency Performance and Predictions - Strategists are bearish on the yen, predicting that election results will lead to increased government spending, while U.S. tariffs may slow down interest rate hikes [1] - The yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar since peaking in April, driven by concerns over Japanese elections [3] - The ratio of bullish to bearish bets on the dollar-yen pair is close to four to one, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Political Factors and Economic Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's poor polling results have raised concerns that Prime Minister Kishida may resort to populist spending measures to secure support for his weakened coalition [1] - Analysts suggest that if Kishida were to step down, he might be replaced by Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to more expansionary fiscal policies [3] - Barclays strategists predict that if expansionary fiscal policies are implemented, the dollar-yen exchange rate could rise above 150 [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Central Bank Decisions - Traders are closely watching the upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision for clues on future monetary policy, with a 73% probability of a rate hike by year-end priced into the overnight index swap market [4] - Some strategists believe that the recent U.S. tariffs, while lower than initially threatened, will still impact the Japanese economy, leading to a potential depreciation of the yen beyond 150 [5] - The market sentiment indicates that the recent strong performance of the dollar may be temporary, with some analysts remaining cautiously optimistic about the yen's future [3]