日央行本周继续“按兵不动”？贸易条件改善，何时加息成最大看点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a potential increase in inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year due to improved US-Japan trade uncertainties [1][13]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - Economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a consensus among 56 surveyed economists [1]. - Market pricing indicates an approximately 80% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of the year, with October emerging as a favored time for the next increase [1][8]. - Following the US-Japan trade agreement, expectations for a rate hike have significantly rebounded, with a 65% probability for the October meeting and 80% for December [4]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement has notably reduced uncertainties, with the US agreeing to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles, down from a previous 25% [2][3]. - Japan has committed to establishing a fund of up to $550 billion for direct investment in the US as part of the trade agreement [2]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its short-term inflation forecast upward, driven by rising food prices, particularly for staple items like rice [13][14]. - The core CPI forecast for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to be adjusted from 2.2% to approximately 2.5% [14]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the medium-term inflation trajectory is anticipated to remain unchanged, with expectations of inflation rates falling below 2% in fiscal year 2026 [15]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Political uncertainties in Japan are currently pushing up long-term yields, but these uncertainties are expected to gradually ease, leading to a reduction in the political risk premium [16][17]. - The 10-year Japanese government bonds remain attractive, with current holding yields around 11 basis points and rolling yields at approximately 10 basis points, even with anticipated interest rate hikes [17].